Severe Weather Returns

Severe weather in late June is not common, but it's not unheard of; living in Arkansas you know we have to expect anything. It does appear that portions of Arkansas will see some severe weather on Friday, this is not an expected outbreak of tornadoes, or crazy severe weather chaos. However, we always have to be vigilant, you can never let your guard down. Let's dig into the main points..

• FOR NOW, it appears that there will two rounds of thunderstorms due to a weak cold front moving south, both rounds could be severe. One round looks likely early Friday morning, probably after 4-5 AM or so. Another round looks possible as we finish Friday off, with storms entering western Arkansas sometime around 9-10 PM or so.
• It does appear that portions of west central, and northwest Arkansas have the highest chance to see any severe weather. This does NOT mean that other parts of the state can't and will not see any severe weather. 
• Storms will enter from the west, and move east in the both rounds, storms should weaken the farther they move east.
• It is possible that storm development could be stalled tomorrow evening, it really depends on the amount of convection left in the atmosphere. 

We have included the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center as usual, as you can see portions of northwest Arkansas are under an "enhanced" risk area. Other parts of northern and west central Arkansas are in the "slight" risk area. This blog is being posted at 11 PM on 6/29/17, this graphic could change before storms arrive so be aware of that. 

SPC Graphic for 6/30/17 Storms

As we stated earlier in the blog, it looks like there is two rounds possible with these storms. We'll include some model graphics from the NAM 3k model to help explain this. The model posted below shows storms entering northwest Arkansas tomorrow morning. Damaging winds will be the main threats with these storms. 

Morning Round

The next graphic shows storms also moving into western Arkansas tomorrow in the late evening hours. Once again the main threat looks to be heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Remember, there is a chance this round could get stalled out depending on the convection available. We will simply just have to wait and see.. 

Evening Round

Key points of this event:

-Main threats are damaging winds and heavy rainfall (isolated tornado can never be ruled out)

-Storms SHOULD weaken as they move to the east

-Two rounds possible, keep an umbrella handy

-Main threat area is west central, and northwest Arkansas. General area to advise is Fort Smith north to the general NWA area. 

Be safe, and God bless! 

-AW Team