Winter Weather Possible Mid-Week

How awesome has the weather been today? After a nice taste of spring, reality will come crashing back by Tuesday evening. The entire state should be well cooled down due to a cold front that will move in later tonight into tomorrow evening. We should remain in a cooler pattern through Thursday as well. What about winter weather? Yes, it does appear possible this week. For now, this doesn't seem like a winter storm or anything catastrophic.

Per usual, there is some model data differences. This is common in our state and model data tends to struggle with handling moisture, cloud cover and temperatures. Regardless, the likelihood of someone seeing some form of winter precipitation seems plausible late Wednesday/Thursday AM. Let's look at a few model images: **NOT A FORECAST**

The EURO has a pretty good track record this winter in regards to winter weather. So for now, my money is on the European model. If this solution verified, we would likely experience a cold rain with a winter mix Thursday AM. Perhaps some snow showers across northern Arkansas.

Next, we have the snow lovers dream. The North American Model is pretty aggressive with a wide swath of winter weather by Thursday AM. This model is also spitting out some impressive snow totals by Thursday night. Please remember that these are models and not a forecast, the NAM is most certainly the outlier for now.

Lastly, we have the GFS. I'm not a huge fan of the GFS model, as it always tends to let me down. HOWEVER, it does have some winter weather mix Thursday AM. It seems to favor the NAM solution, but isn't as aggressive. Once again, I'm leaning with the EURO with an eye on the GFS.

I'm not a huge fan of a "highlight map" when it comes to winter weather, as it can become so unpredictable. However, I feel comfortable in saying the northern half of Arkansas will likely be favored this week, especially west central (River Valley) and northwest Arkansas.

This will be a fluid round of weather, so expect changes. Remember, snow is never a guarantee in our state. We can only do so much with the data we have at hand, so be patient. I know snow lovers are frustrated, but give it time. One small fluctuation can mean the world, we've all experienced the dreaded 33 degrees and cold rain.

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-Zachary Hall (@wxzachary on Twitter)