Memorial Day Weekend Storms

Memorial Day weekend is one of the busiest holiday weekends of the year. According to the AAA, nearly 40 million people are expected to travel across the nation. This poses a great risk for several areas across the southern United States this weekend due to possible severe weather. This does include Arkansas, hence the reason for posting this blog! It wouldn't be normal if Arkansas didn't have a wild weather swing just in time for a big holiday. Remember, we are still at mid-week, so things could change, but we don't expect much to change. Let's dig into a few specifics!

• The day we are really watching is Saturday. It looks as if Saturday has the potential for some very strong storms. There is a marginal threat for severe weather Friday. We will explain the differentials in these two days in this blog. 
• As of right now (5/24/17) there is no Storm Prediction Center outlook issued for this weekend with the traditional risk areas. However, there is a standard 15% outlook area that does include the WHOLE state. This will be posted below.
• With the whole state in a risk area, this does pose the question for timing. As of right now areas in the western portions of the state should see storms in the late afternoon into the evening hours. The farther east you go, the later in the evening for storm chances.  
• It does appear that all modes of severe weather are possible (mainly Saturday). Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes; some possibly strong. 

As we mentioned above, the SPC does not have a traditional outlook posted at this time. However, we do have a 15% risk area highlighted. You can see in the graphic posted below, they do indeed have the entire state highlighted for Saturday's possible severe event. We believe that northern, and western, Arkansas has the highest severe probabilities for Saturday. That being said, we cannot rule out severe storm chances in other portions of the state. In fact, it would not be surprising at all if a few tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings went out in far southern, and eastern, Arkansas Saturday evening. 

Saturday SPC Outlook (15% highlight)

Lets dive into Friday's storm chances, which are lower than Saturday. The SPC has a small portion of Northern, Arkansas included in a "marginal" risk area. There will be plenty of instability for storms to work with on Friday. The only problem is there will be a strong capping inversion that should highly limit storm development. We have spoken of the "CAP" before in recent forecasts. When a layer of warm humid air sets up in the atmosphere, this limits severe storms. This is a good thing, and what we want for Friday evening. Should the CAP break, storms could fire up and turn severe quickly. The likelihood of this is low, which is why we aren't spending too much time on this. We have posted the SPC outlook for Friday below. 

Friday Severe Weather Outlook

Now let's take a look at the instability values, or "CAPE" for Saturdays storms. We have included a look here at the NAM 12-km model. As you can see here, very unstable air will be present for most of the state. You will be able to literally feel the instability in the air Saturday. The warm humid air will be extremely abundant, which is needed for that strong-severe storm development. Values at near 6000 J k/g are not unheard of, but not common either. The NAM does have a knack of "over-doing" things sometimes. However, this model really lines up with the other models we've been looking at as well. Regardless, the fuel needed for severe weather will very much be there for Saturday. We will be watching this, and future model runs very close. 

NAM 12-km CAPE Values 

None of the above material is posted to scare anyone, or make anyone pack up their belongings and leave the state. It's May folks, and we live in Arkansas. Severe weather happens, and it looks likely for Saturday. You know we don't sugarcoat things here at Arkansas Weather, but we also don't "hype" weather events. As of now, it appears that the round of storms for Saturday will be fairly strong. Yes, tornadoes are possible, some possibly stronger than the usual squall line spin ups. Stay tuned to the page and we will have updates and any changes as we move closer. We hope you enjoyed the blog, and thanks for keeping up with us. Remember, stay weather aware, and share! God bless.

-AW Team 

Thursday Severe Weather

Who else is ready for some more storms? 


It appears another round of severe weather is possible for Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. This round of severe weather does not appear at this time to be as significant as our last round of storms. With that being said, any storm system in the spring severe season must be watched closely (especially in May). According to recent model updates, storms should be on a weakening trend as they move east into Arkansas. In this blog update, we will give you a quick synopsis on our thinking, and what the models have been showing. Lets get into it. 

• Storms look to arrive later in the day on Thursday, probably after 4-5 PM. Some storm development looks possible beforehand, but shouldn't be widespread.
• This round of storms looks to hold more of a severe hail threat (hail one inch in diameter or more). 
• As usual with these storms, damaging winds look to be a possibility.
• There is a tornado threat, but at this time it looks to be fairly low. With that being said, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. This is something we will monitor closely. 
• We are really highlighting the western and northern portions of the state, southeast and eastern, Arkansas may dodge the bullet with these storms. 

First we'll look at the Storm Prediction Centers outlook for Thursday. This blog is being posted late Tuesday night, so this map could, and possibly will be updated before Thursday. As you can see, there is a fairly sharp gradient that cuts across portions of southwest, Arkansas into northeast, Arkansas. Take this with a grain of salt, remember, this is just an outlook. We are only at a "slight" risk at this time, but this could be changed before Thursday. 

Looking over the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values, they aren't representing extreme instability. However, that doesn't mean that strong storms aren't possible. Any model with CAPE values near 3000 J/kg must be watched closely. We like showing the CAPE models, it helps correlate well with the SPC outlook. You can see the instability stretch from southwest, to northeast. 

By this point, you are probably eager to know when, and where these storms will be at what time. Remember, we can't pin point what time and exactly where a storm will be. However, we do have simulated radar models that can help give us a "general" idea. So take these with a grain of salt! Just take note, storm chances look highest after 5 PM or so, especially in western, Arkansas. Any storms that move into eastern, Arkansas will be later in the night. 

The first model posted below shows storm development in western, Arkansas sometime around 5 PM. 

This next model shows storms progressing and organizing in western, Arkansas sometime around 9-10 PM. 

Lastly, here is a model showing storms moving into central, Arkansas. Storms moving through around 12-1 AM. 

We know that some people struggle to find their county, town, or city on a map. It is hard for us, because most of the models and maps available do not list them! So, to help those of you out, we are posting a county map. Just look over models, and check the county map. This should help you get an idea if you are involved Thursday. Remember, these forecasts, and outlooks are very general. Weather forecasting is very tough, contrary to popular belief. We do the best we can, with what information we receive! 

Just remember, we are still a couple of days out from Thursday. Models will tweak some, but should remain somewhat similar. We like to post these blogs and updates a couple days out, so people are plenty aware. This is our second blog posted, we hope you are enjoying! Share this blog, and let's give folks that fair warning! God bless.

-AW Team