It appears another round of severe weather is possible for Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. This round of severe weather does not appear at this time to be as significant as our last round of storms. With that being said, any storm system in the spring severe season must be watched closely (especially in May). According to recent model updates, storms should be on a weakening trend as they move east into Arkansas. In this blog update, we will give you a quick synopsis on our thinking, and what the models have been showing. Lets get into it.
- Storms look to arrive later in the day on Thursday, probably after 4-5 PM. Some storm development looks possible beforehand, but shouldn't be widespread.
- This round of storms looks to hold more of a severe hail threat (hail one inch in diameter or more).
- As usual with these storms, damaging winds look to be a possibility.
- There is a tornado threat, but at this time it looks to be fairly low. With that being said, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. This is something we will monitor closely.
- We are really highlighting the western and northern portions of the state, southeast and eastern, Arkansas may dodge the bullet with these storms.
First we'll look at the Storm Prediction Centers outlook for Thursday. This blog is being posted late Tuesday night, so this map could, and possibly will be updated before Thursday. As you can see, there is a fairly sharp gradient that cuts across portions of southwest, Arkansas into northeast, Arkansas. Take this with a grain of salt, remember, this is just an outlook. We are only at a "slight" risk at this time, but this could be changed before Thursday.
Looking over the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values, they aren't representing extreme instability. However, that doesn't mean that strong storms aren't possible. Any model with CAPE values near 3000 J/kg must be watched closely. We like showing the CAPE models, it helps correlate well with the SPC outlook. You can see the instability stretch from southwest, to northeast.
By this point, you are probably eager to know when, and where these storms will be at what time. Remember, we can't pin point what time and exactly where a storm will be. However, we do have simulated radar models that can help give us a "general" idea. So take these with a grain of salt! Just take note, storm chances look highest after 5 PM or so, especially in western, Arkansas. Any storms that move into eastern, Arkansas will be later in the night.
The first model posted below shows storm development in western, Arkansas sometime around 5 PM.
This next model shows storms progressing and organizing in western, Arkansas sometime around 9-10 PM.
Lastly, here is a model showing storms moving into central, Arkansas. Storms moving through around 12-1 AM.
We know that some people struggle to find their county, town, or city on a map. It is hard for us, because most of the models and maps available do not list them! So, to help those of you out, we are posting a county map. Just look over models, and check the county map. This should help you get an idea if you are involved Thursday. Remember, these forecasts, and outlooks are very general. Weather forecasting is very tough, contrary to popular belief. We do the best we can, with what information we receive!
Just remember, we are still a couple of days out from Thursday. Models will tweak some, but should remain somewhat similar. We like to post these blogs and updates a couple days out, so people are plenty aware. This is our second blog posted, we hope you are enjoying! Share this blog, and let's give folks that fair warning! God bless.
-AW Team
