Frigid Start For The New Year

New Year's Day High Temperatures (Courtesy NOAA)

We often see people stating "we haven't had a real winter in a long time". Well, those people are getting their wish this upcoming weekend. The stage is currently set for a large area of Arctic high pressure to dump absolutely frigid temperatures into Arkansas. We could experience a few days of highs below freezing, lows near zero in some areas, and very dangerous wind chill values. The real story of this weekend is the cold temperatures, but with cold weather snow is sometimes a possibility. Yes, we do have a small chance for some snow in parts of Arkansas this weekend. Models have came into an agreement on placement, but as we all know it will likely change. Forecasting snow is only accurate once its here. Let's dive into some models, and go over some minor specifics.

GFS model (courtesy Weatherbell.com)

With the cooler air in place it does appear that a disturbance moving across the state could spark some light snow. For now, and we stress FOR NOW, portions of western and northwest Arkansas appear to have the best chances. The reason we say this is that all models have came into an agreement on this, we have posted three models here to show you. The global forecast model (GFS) originally had large amounts of snow for this weekend, but has backed way off of that. Which is not uncommon for the GFS, now its showing more realistic amounts.

EURO model (courtesy Weatherbell.com)

You've often heard us speak about the European model, often generalized as the "EURO". The reason our confidence has grown on the possibility of snow is that the EURO model has jumped ship a long with the GFS. The Euro is usually more dependable when it comes to wintry weather, so we are watching this closely. The EURO has also been more aggressive with the wintry weather chances, but take this lightly as we are still a few days away. 

NAM model (courtesy Weatherbell.com

Lastly, we have the NAM model. The NAM is on board with both the EURO and GFS placing the minimal snow amounts across western Arkansas. When you look at all three models together, you get a good sense of what the models are trying to put together. We don't expect a winter storm here either, any amounts should be light. Possibly a dusting to an inch in isolated areas.

In closing, we cannot stress enough that the real story for this weekend is the possibility of extreme cold temperatures. As for the wintry weather it looks as if our chances are best New Year's Eve, we'll have timing ironed out soon hopefully. We fully expect a wind chill advisory to be issued and this needs to be taken VERY serious. We have seen model data showing wind chill temperatures well below zero degrees. As far as the wintry weather goes it appears the amounts will be minimal, this does not mean it cannot or will not change; in fact in probably will. However, when you have the extreme cold we could experience any precipitation that falls will cause slick and hazardous conditions. This will be on a holiday (New Year's Eve) so if you have travel plans, have a backup plan ready. Make sure you dress yourself and children warm if you plan on being out for New Year's and make sure the pets are taken care of - DO NOT leave them outside, they will freeze. Stay tuned and we will keep you updated, as we approach closer we will fine tune the data more and more and give you the best forecast possible.

As always thank you so much for following our page and reading along. Have a safe and happy New Year's!

-AW Team



All models are credited to: Weatherbell.com