More Snow Possible

Parts of Arkansas were treated to a nice blanket of snow this morning into the early afternoon. We have two more chances for snow coming up, one occurring early Monday morning (1-15-18) and another chance late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. From all model guidance it appears the most prolific chance is the system on Tuesday. We've listed a few bullet points here to lay out the blog.

• Snow chances for Monday morning look to be confined to far northern Arkansas, we'll include a model snapshot below on that. A few isolated areas of light snow or flurries are possible further south, but nothing crazy.
• Aside from the snow it's going to be cold out there, so remember that if you are going to be out.
• Models have had a hard time figuring out the exact placement for the snow Tuesday, but we think we have it figured out (somewhat). We'll also post a few models on that below giving you our thoughts.
• As we saw this morning minimal snow amounts can cause roadway issues, especially with the constant cold conditions. Slick spots will be possible again early Monday morning and Tuesday for a wide range of Arkansas. BE MINDFUL of this, some school and business delay or closings will be possible for Tuesday. 

Let's get into some models and give everyone a glimpse to what we're seeing. First we'll show you the high resolution models for tomorrow morning. We've circled the area expected to see any snowfall, clearly northern Arkansas has the best chances. Like we said earlier, some areas further south could see some isolated areas of light snow or flurries. Amounts wont be too crazy, with only a dusting to an inch possible. A few higher amounts can't be ruled out, but aren't expected. 

As we progress through Monday snow chances will exist for much of the day for northern Arkansas, eventually this will ride the boundary south and northern Arkansas will turn dry. We believe these chances could exist up into the evening hours for Monday (northern Arkansas), but we'll just have to wait and see. Eventually, the system will progress south giving southern Arkansas it's chances for some snowfall. Models have been adamant about this system tapping into quite a bit of moisture as it progresses south. Sadly for our folks across central Arkansas, and even areas locally in western and eastern Arkansas, it doesn't appear your chances are as high for an accumulating snow due to a large dry slot in the system. We could be wrong, and somewhat hope we are wrong on this, we want everyone to have that equal chance. We've posted a model below showing you the moisture as it moves south (NAM 3-km).

NAM (3km) showing the moisture moving south (snow showers).

You can see from the simulated radar image above that early Tuesday morning the system is gaining strength as it moves south. This could dump 1-3 inches across southern Arkansas, giving areas across western, central, and eastern Arkansas possibly a dusting to maybe an inch. This will have to be a part of the forecast we will just have to wait and see. Areas like Fort Smith, Little Rock, Russellville, Conway, and points east will be in that middle area where things could go either way (dry, or some snowfall). 

Lastly, we leave you with everyone's favorite, the accumulation models. This is obviously subject to change as it is with every winter weather event. We've posted a few of the models below to give you an idea on the model argument we've been dealing with. Regardless, southern Arkansas has the highest chances for an accumulating snow early Tuesday. Central Arkansas is in a toss up, and northern Arkansas will have their round early Monday throughout the day. 

NAM snowfall amounts (notice the dry slot across central Arkansas).

GFS snowfall amounts (notice the dry slot across central Arkansas)

ECMWF (EURO) snowfall amounts. Notice the dry slot not as prevalent with this model.

All models are credited to: Weatherbell.com

Late Week Winter Weather

First let us start off by saying the models have done a horrible job this winter. Earlier in the week the models were being very aggressive, they did the exact same thing with our last winter weather chances; only to back off at the last minute and displace the moisture. Predicting winter weather has been harder than ever this season. With that being said, this does NOT mean some of us will not see any wintry precipitation Thur/Fri. In fact, it appears parts of Arkansas (specifically northeastern) will get a good coating of ice and sleet, which we believe will cause some travel
impacts. Some of western Arkansas specifically northwest Arkansas also has a chance to see some wintry weather as this system approaches from the west. We'll show you some models, and include some bullet points here to help everyone get a good grip on what is expected.

• Big temperature swing incoming, temperatures today and a portion of tomorrow will be much milder than what we have been experiencing. This will change as we progress into Thursday/Friday.
• All precipitation will start out as rain, with some isolated areas actually seeing almost a inch of rain. This will slowly transition into a wintry mix, and then finally finish as a light snow for some. 
• The key to this entire setup is just how much moisture is available with the cold air transition. As the low pressure system spins off to the east it will churn out this precipitation. 
• At this time (1-10-18 11:42 AM) we do not expect this to be a winter storm. However, a winter weather advisory is possible and might be needed, specifically for northeast Arkansas. 
• We have our eyes on a additional system for early next week, confidence is low however due to the model's performing terribly. We'll have more on that if it continues to show signs of progression. 

Posted below is the GFS model, you can see the cold front sweeping the state Thursday. Notice that temperature swing we mentioned, 50's to 60's ahead of the front, with MUCH colder air following. 

We've included some model snap shots below giving you an idea of the progression. Everyone starts off with plain rain, then transitioning into a mix, then the system begins to exit to the east with some light snow to finish. 

(All Rain)

Thursday evening the rain will be in place, this will cause issues with attempts at treating roads beforehand.

(Wintry mix starting NW)

You can see the wintry mix already beginning in parts of northwest Arkansas and western Arkansas Thursday evening into the early morning hours of Friday. Models have kept parts of west central Arkansas above freezing longer than northwest Arkansas. This will keep precip as MOSTLY rain, but obviously this is subject to change!

(Portions of central and north central start to experience the mix)

The wintry mix will progress across the state to the east. Not much changing here, likely a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and maybe some light snow. 

(Light snow to finish, system exits to the east)

Finally the system begins to exit to the east. Northeast Arkansas looks to take the brunt of this system as it begins to ramp up. Portions of the southeastern US and the Ohio Valley will really get the brunt of the moisture.

Road conditions could worsen Thursday night into Friday morning, this could very well cause travel issues and create closings. We'll have all updated information on that on our page. Our last model we would like to show you (posted below) is an output for freezing rain, you can see the total estimates really ramp up in the northeast. Hopefully we will see mostly sleet, remember freezing rain can cause a number of issues on power lines and trees. These amounts appear mostly light for now, so let's hope it remains this way.

Don't let the kiddos get discouraged if it appears you won't be seeing this round of winter weather. It's still really early in the game, and we have some more chances coming up soon! We'll have updates continuously as we progress through today and tomorrow. As always, thanks for reading and stay tuned!

-AW Team


All models are credited to: Weatherbell.com