- Snow chances for Monday morning look to be confined to far northern Arkansas, we'll include a model snapshot below on that. A few isolated areas of light snow or flurries are possible further south, but nothing crazy.
- Aside from the snow it's going to be cold out there, so remember that if you are going to be out.
- Models have had a hard time figuring out the exact placement for the snow Tuesday, but we think we have it figured out (somewhat). We'll also post a few models on that below giving you our thoughts.
- As we saw this morning minimal snow amounts can cause roadway issues, especially with the constant cold conditions. Slick spots will be possible again early Monday morning and Tuesday for a wide range of Arkansas. BE MINDFUL of this, some school and business delay or closings will be possible for Tuesday.
Let's get into some models and give everyone a glimpse to what we're seeing. First we'll show you the high resolution models for tomorrow morning. We've circled the area expected to see any snowfall, clearly northern Arkansas has the best chances. Like we said earlier, some areas further south could see some isolated areas of light snow or flurries. Amounts wont be too crazy, with only a dusting to an inch possible. A few higher amounts can't be ruled out, but aren't expected.
As we progress through Monday snow chances will exist for much of the day for northern Arkansas, eventually this will ride the boundary south and northern Arkansas will turn dry. We believe these chances could exist up into the evening hours for Monday (northern Arkansas), but we'll just have to wait and see. Eventually, the system will progress south giving southern Arkansas it's chances for some snowfall. Models have been adamant about this system tapping into quite a bit of moisture as it progresses south. Sadly for our folks across central Arkansas, and even areas locally in western and eastern Arkansas, it doesn't appear your chances are as high for an accumulating snow due to a large dry slot in the system. We could be wrong, and somewhat hope we are wrong on this, we want everyone to have that equal chance. We've posted a model below showing you the moisture as it moves south (NAM 3-km).
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| NAM (3km) showing the moisture moving south (snow showers). |
You can see from the simulated radar image above that early Tuesday morning the system is gaining strength as it moves south. This could dump 1-3 inches across southern Arkansas, giving areas across western, central, and eastern Arkansas possibly a dusting to maybe an inch. This will have to be a part of the forecast we will just have to wait and see. Areas like Fort Smith, Little Rock, Russellville, Conway, and points east will be in that middle area where things could go either way (dry, or some snowfall).
Lastly, we leave you with everyone's favorite, the accumulation models. This is obviously subject to change as it is with every winter weather event. We've posted a few of the models below to give you an idea on the model argument we've been dealing with. Regardless, southern Arkansas has the highest chances for an accumulating snow early Tuesday. Central Arkansas is in a toss up, and northern Arkansas will have their round early Monday throughout the day.
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| NAM snowfall amounts (notice the dry slot across central Arkansas). |
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| GFS snowfall amounts (notice the dry slot across central Arkansas) |
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| ECMWF (EURO) snowfall amounts. Notice the dry slot not as prevalent with this model. |
All models are credited to: Weatherbell.com
