Halloween Forecast Blog - Severe Weather Possible

Happy Halloween! The spooky holiday looks to be quite nasty this year, as we've mentioned for the last few days. Soggy wet weather, a few stronger thunderstorms, and wild temperature swings are in store for the next 48 hours. Hopefully the kiddos have had a chance to claim their candy, as tomorrow evening looks nothing like trick-or-treating weather. We'll go over all the details in this blog, let's dive into it.

• As of this afternoon (10-30-18), temps are ranging from the low to mid 70's, to a few lower 80's across eastern and southern Arkansas. This will change quickly as Thursday afternoon looks chilly with high's in the 40's and 50's.
• A cold front will be responsible for the temperature shift, this cold front could also spark a few stronger thunderstorms on Halloween, mostly across southern and eastern Arkansas. 
• Rain chances will begin to increase late Tuesday evening, sadly it appears this rain will linger throughout Wednesday and Thursday, before exiting the state Friday.
• In regards to severe weather tomorrow evening, there is some concern. While the overall severe threat is NOT extremely high, it must be watched closely. We'll have more detail on this below.
• Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and an isolated tornado or two is possible. This appears to be a higher shear, lower CAPE event. For those weather geeks out there, this means the tornado threat could be slightly higher than normal. HOWEVER, we are not expecting an outbreak of tornadoes or anything significant.

Western Arkansas will begin to see the impacts of the incoming cold front first. As rain chances will start to increase later tonight. Notice in the simulated radar image above, you can clearly see precipitation along the front itself across eastern Oklahoma. 

Fast forward to Wednesday afternoon (Halloween), the rain and some thunderstorms are still on-going. This simulated radar image is valid for Wednesday afternoon. While some of these storms could be stronger, we expect most of the severe activity to take place during the evening hours.

Notice the line of thunderstorms appears to take on a more organized structure. We expect a large linear line of thunderstorms to begin to increase in intensity during it's track east. This will be the main area and time frame of concern. Severe weather chances will begin to increase likely after 4-5 PM.

By early Thursday morning, the severe threat should be completely diminished. Lingering rain will still be present, but any organized severe weather should be well to the south and east of Arkansas.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk area for portions of southern and eastern Arkansas for Halloween. We've created our own graphic and placed it above (yellow shaded area), this area accounts for the expected development tomorrow evening. If you don't live in the shaded area, you could still see a few stronger thunderstorms. However, we fully expect this to be the focal point of any severe weather.

Thursday will be MUCH cooler, check out the expected temperatures Thursday afternoon. Lingering rain and cloud cover will keep us very cool. Some areas may not get out of the 40's Thursday afternoon, while others will be stagnant in the low to mid 50's.

Hopefully you enjoyed reading this blog, if you have any questions feel free to send us a message or comment on Facebook. We will try to answer any questions you may have, as we know this is an important day for many people!

-AW

Very Cool Weather Coming - Tuesday Night Severe Weather

It's probably safe to say that most of you are ready for a cool down and a break from our summer-like pattern. We're happy to tell you that this break is indeed coming, but it doesn't come without a price. Stronger thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening/late night as the expected cold front moves through Arkansas. In this blog we'll go over intensities, timing, and the areas that should be most effected.

• It will still be fairly warm and humid on Tuesday ahead of the expected cold front. Some storms could initiate during the afternoon hours, but our main concern is during the overnight (early Wednesday morning).
• If our model data holds true, a large linear (squall line) of thunderstorms should stretch across the state from north to south. This complex will move east, gradually dissipating as it tracks east.
• By Wednesday afternoon, the severe threat is completely gone and the cold front will slowly take over! Temperatures could dip into the low 40's for some of us early Thursday morning.
• The colder air looks to hang around for the next several days, giving us a much needed break from warmer temperatures. 
• In regards to our severe weather chances, our main concerns are damaging winds. However, an isolated tornado or two is possible with this system.

Western Arkansas appears to have the greatest chance for any severe weather Tuesday evening. Central Arkansas is NOT included at this time, due to the belief that any storms should lose intensity during their track east. However, this "slight" risk area could certainly be expanded further east. 

Here is a look at simulated radar Tuesday evening. Notice there is some isolated thunderstorm activity in this model across central and western Arkansas. While these storms could be stronger, this isn't the main complex to be concerned of. Notice the large and more organized system to the west (in central Oklahoma) - this is the system we've been speaking of.

Fast forward a few hours and the system we're speaking of is making it's entry into the state. While this timing may not be perfect, we believe this system should enter the state sometime after 1-2 AM. This is also when this system could be at it's strongest as far as when it enters Arkansas. 

As you head to work Wednesday morning, some could be dealing with thunderstorms, while others are not. Notice the squall line has lost a large amount of intensity and organization as it moves east. While some of these storms could certainly still be on the stronger side, the severe risk should be lower.

By Wednesday afternoon, all thunderstorm activity has dissipated and the severe risk diminished. 

Check out those temperatures! Once the thunderstorms are gone, the cold front will slowly make it's entry into the state. Thursday morning look's chilly for some of us, with NWA possibly dipping into the low to mid 40's. For those of you across southeast Arkansas, don't worry, the colder air will eventually reach you.

Lastly, we leave you with the latest 6-10 day outlook from the NOAA. If you'll notice, nearly the entire state of Arkansas is engulfed in a sea of dark blue! This means well below average temperatures are likely. High's in the 60's and lows in the 40's and maybe a few 30's....

We'll see! Thank you so much for reading, feel free to comment or message with any questions.

-AW