- As of this afternoon (10-30-18), temps are ranging from the low to mid 70's, to a few lower 80's across eastern and southern Arkansas. This will change quickly as Thursday afternoon looks chilly with high's in the 40's and 50's.
- A cold front will be responsible for the temperature shift, this cold front could also spark a few stronger thunderstorms on Halloween, mostly across southern and eastern Arkansas.
- Rain chances will begin to increase late Tuesday evening, sadly it appears this rain will linger throughout Wednesday and Thursday, before exiting the state Friday.
- In regards to severe weather tomorrow evening, there is some concern. While the overall severe threat is NOT extremely high, it must be watched closely. We'll have more detail on this below.
- Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and an isolated tornado or two is possible. This appears to be a higher shear, lower CAPE event. For those weather geeks out there, this means the tornado threat could be slightly higher than normal. HOWEVER, we are not expecting an outbreak of tornadoes or anything significant.
Western Arkansas will begin to see the impacts of the incoming cold front first. As rain chances will start to increase later tonight. Notice in the simulated radar image above, you can clearly see precipitation along the front itself across eastern Oklahoma.
Fast forward to Wednesday afternoon (Halloween), the rain and some thunderstorms are still on-going. This simulated radar image is valid for Wednesday afternoon. While some of these storms could be stronger, we expect most of the severe activity to take place during the evening hours.
Notice the line of thunderstorms appears to take on a more organized structure. We expect a large linear line of thunderstorms to begin to increase in intensity during it's track east. This will be the main area and time frame of concern. Severe weather chances will begin to increase likely after 4-5 PM.
By early Thursday morning, the severe threat should be completely diminished. Lingering rain will still be present, but any organized severe weather should be well to the south and east of Arkansas.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk area for portions of southern and eastern Arkansas for Halloween. We've created our own graphic and placed it above (yellow shaded area), this area accounts for the expected development tomorrow evening. If you don't live in the shaded area, you could still see a few stronger thunderstorms. However, we fully expect this to be the focal point of any severe weather.
Thursday will be MUCH cooler, check out the expected temperatures Thursday afternoon. Lingering rain and cloud cover will keep us very cool. Some areas may not get out of the 40's Thursday afternoon, while others will be stagnant in the low to mid 50's.
Hopefully you enjoyed reading this blog, if you have any questions feel free to send us a message or comment on Facebook. We will try to answer any questions you may have, as we know this is an important day for many people!
-AW
