November Snow - Who is in, who is out!

First and foremost, forecasting snow (or any winter weather) is one of the most challenging things in the field of meteorology. We may have an idea on how a scenario will play out, but winter weather has a vast mind of it's own, and will do as it pleases. With this being said, it is still a lot of fun to attempt a winter weather forecast. During this time of year models will gradually begin to bring snow/winter mix into the longer range solutions. These solutions usually get thrown around and then vanish.

Snowy weather back on January 20th, 2011 in NWA.

What we look for in models regarding winter weather is a trend and consistency. Over the last few days we've seen both of these things. There is some vary among the models, some sort of outlandish, but there is consistency. Let's take a look at a few bullet points before we look at some model output.

• The time period we're speaking of is on Monday evening (11-12-18). Prior to any winter weather, most of us will see some rainfall. It will be a cold rain as well, with temperatures ranging in the 30's and 40's. 
• The changeover for any sort of wintry precipitation would likely occur after 3-4 PM. This will mostly involve the northern half of our state. Don't lose hope yet though, we'll show you a few models below that say different.
• As of right now, this does not appear to be a "big" snow as one might call it. A dusting to maybe 1-2 inches in spots is possible, but we don't feel comfortable going beyond that. As we mentioned earlier, winter weather has a mind of it's own, so be prepared...
• By Tuesday afternoon we're completely dry, but very chilly with temperatures struggling to climb out of the 30's during the afternoon hours. 

Now for the favorite part of the blog, the model data: 

***DISCLAIMER***

This is just model output, each scenario could play out, these models are NOT our own forecast. We'll have our own forecast at the end of the blog.

GFS

First, we'll take a look at the GFS model. This model is notorious for being very aggressive with precipitation and temperatures. This can be a deadly combination for a forecast, as the models are really over-doing temperatures which lead to more snow/winter weather output. This model image looks really nice for snow lovers, which shows a nice swath of snow moving west to east. 

However, this is just one model and likely a bit much.

ECMWF

Next, we'll take a look at the ECMWF, or "Euro" for short. This model is by far the most conservative as far as wintry precipitation. Notice NWA in this model image is cold enough for anything frozen, while all else is just a cold rain. This model is by far the most boring output, but usually one of the more accurate. If you are a snow lover, this model is NOT your friend. However, if one was to bet on this system, this model would be a handy sidekick.

NAM

Lastly, let's take a look at the North American Model or "NAM" for short. This is the 18z run, let us tell you now, this model has gone absolutely bonkers. The amount outputs show values of right at 10 inches of snow Monday evening. Yes, you read that right, 10 inches of snow. Is this likely? No. 

The NAM is sort of like the GFS, as it has a problem with overexerting temperatures and wintry weather in it's outputs. If you are a snow lover, this model is your friend, above of all else. Notice the model image has the snow/wintry weather (shaded blue) moving west to east and covering a large area. This model keeps the snow well to the south into much of the state, as we stated earlier, fun to look at, but highly unlikely.

As for our forecast, as promised, we're taking the more conservative route. Any winter weather could certainly reach further south than the area we have highlighted. If models begin to suggest different, we'll update our forecast and post it on our Facebook/Twitter. Northern Arkansas is certainly favorable for any sort of winter weather. We did not highlight it on this graphic, but the higher elevations of the Ouachitas could see some of the action as well. 

Bottom line, this is NOT a huge blizzard/snow storm. Winter weather could develop on the backside of the expected rain as temperatures dip below freezing. This could result in a dusting, to maybe 1-2 inches of snow in isolated areas. We'll have updates soon, as we continue to monitor data! Thank you for reading.

-AW