Let's go over a few key points for tomorrow.
- It appears there will be two distinct rounds of severe weather tomorrow. An early morning round, involving mostly western Arkansas, and an afternoon round involving the eastern half of the state.
- All modes of severe weather will be possible with both rounds, the afternoon round looking more significant than the morning round.
- By Saturday evening, we should be in the clear from any severe weather as it moves east out of Arkansas.
- One factor that could inhibit severe potential will be prior rainfall/storms during the morning hours. If significant convection does occur, it COULD dampen the severe potential across central/eastern Arkansas.
- Damaging winds, larger hail and an isolated or two is possible with any severe thunderstorm.
If you're viewing on a mobile device, you can simply enlarge the following graphics by clicking on them.
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| Slight Risk Issued |
A slight risk of severe weather has been issued for western Arkansas due to the potential of a late night/early morning round of severe weather.
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| Enhanced Risk Issued |
An additional enhanced risk of severe weather has also been issued for Saturday afternoon. A slight risk encompasses the rest of our state to account for any additional development during the afternoon hours.
During the overnight hours tonight, into the early morning hours of Saturday, warmer-moist air will nudge north. This warm sector will set the stage for thunderstorm development. The significance of this warm/unstable air moving north is important for thunderstorm development. For now, it appears the best chances will be across southwest Arkansas. Although thunderstorms could be widespread across western Arkansas.
Following reference to the graphic above, we will likely wake up to stronger thunderstorms early on Saturday. While not all of these storms will be severe, some of them could be on the stronger side. Especially across southwest Arkansas.
Fast forward to Saturday afternoon, we could notice an uptick in severe weather chances. A more prominent warm sector (warm/humid air) could aid in destabilizing our atmosphere. Notice the lack of instability across western Arkansas (no green/yellow colors).
By Saturday mid-day, thunderstorms will still be on-going. Some of the thunderstorm development could quickly strengthen as they move into a more favorable environment, specifically across eastern, northeastern Arkansas. Notice the HRRR simulated radar (above) is suggesting some isolated storm mode across northern/northeast Arkansas. This is concerning, as it could heighten a tornado threat. Just something to watch for now.
By Saturday afternoon, thunderstorms could still be on-going, but coming to an end here locally as they move east out of our state.
Our primary area of concern is damaging winds and larger hail, with both rounds of severe weather. The afternoon round of storms could spawn a limited tornado threat, specifically across northeastern Arkansas where some finer dynamics appear more prevalent. Due to the potential of an early morning round of severe weather, it is a must that you have a way to receive warnings. Do NOT rely on outdoor warning sirens to wake you up.
Remain weather aware tomorrow, we'll have all warnings posted on our Facebook and will be updating on Twitter throughout the day.
-AW
