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| Tornado that occurred in Louisiana (2017) |
Leading into this weekend, a few key components will occur that could allow for the mentioned severe thunderstorms to develop. While looking at upper-air maps, it's clear that our jet stream will deep well into the southern tier of the United States. A strong deepening negative tilted trough, along with a viable low-level jet, and plentiful warm air advection will set the stage for convective development Saturday.
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| Deepening trough extending well into the southern United States |
Notice in the graphic directly above this text, you can clearly see the warm southerly advection from the Gulf into regions of eastern Texas and Louisiana. This WAA will allow for a rather unstable warm sector, with CAPE values easily exceeding 2,000 J/kg. Essentially, thunderstorms will have no issues developing and strengthening in this moisture-rich environment.
Adding to the most previous information, here is a look at the low-level jet (850mb) for Saturday. Notice a substantial increase over north central Louisiana, eastern Texas and southern Arkansas with well over 50 knot flow.
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| Day-3 Categorical Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center |
As of Thursday, April 11th, at 2:00 PM, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of southern Arkansas and north central Louisiana in an "enhanced risk" of severe weather. While a "slight" risk area has been issued encompassing a large region.
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| Significant Tornado Parameters for Saturday |
Looking over the STP parameters for Saturday, it looks grim. Mind you, this isn't to scare you or install panic. Rather, we hope it gives you an idea of the atmospheric conditions for this weekend. When storms enter an environment that allows that needed "spin", it can allow for these all too familiar rotating thunderstorms. Notice values are high across the areas we've mentioned several times.
To round off this blog, we'll cover a few key points for Saturday. Areas in southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and eastern Texas need be prepared for severe weather on Saturday. Widespread thunderstorms will likely develop, some which could be stronger. All modes of severe weather are possible. This includes: damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes (some which could be stronger).
Have a way to receive warnings, NEVER depend on outdoor 1940's era sirens to alert you of an incoming tornado warned storm. NOAA weather radios, social media and your local news affiliate is a much better and sensible option.
Please follow us on Facebook and Twitter (@VortexChasing) for updates regarding this weekend system.
-Vortex Crew
