Let's look over a few points of interest.
- Monday morning could start off relatively mild for this time of year. Monday evening on the other hand, is a different story. Temperatures could fall quickly through the day behind a very powerful cold front.
- Tuesday morning could be VERY cold, with temperatures in the teens across northern Arkansas.
- Depending on how fast the moisture and cold air interaction occurs, some light snow/sleet could fall before the moisture exits our state.
- This isn't a big snow or any sort of blizzard. We've seen this setup hundreds of times, it's just unusual for this time of year.
Here is a few model images from Weatherbell:
On Monday rain will likely be falling across much of the state by lunch time. Notice the widespread snowfall to our north and northwest.
By Monday evening, the cold air begins to seep south and the moisture could change over to light snow or some sort of winter mix. I will add that the EURO solution is fairly aggressive, I posted the GFS' take on this system on Twitter. As we get closer, close range models will likely have a more clear idea.
By Tuesday early morning, some light snow or a winter mix could occur across southeast/eastern Arkansas. Once again this may be a bit aggressive.
Check out those temperatures on Tuesday morning! Pretty much everyone will be well below freezing, wind chills could be brutal early Tuesday as well. The cold is BY FAR the biggest story for now.
To finish off the blog, I would add that this is not an event to panic over. We all know very well the reality of 34 degrees and a cold rain. Northern Arkansas will certainly be favored for any winter weather chances Monday. Plan on being in school Tuesday, if things become more grim, I'll update all of you on Facebook and Twitter.
Remember to follow me on Twitter too: https://twitter.com/wxzachary?lang=en
Thanks for reading!
-Zach
