That being said, it isn't unheard of. Who else remembers the snowstorm of Christmas, 2012? There were BLIZZARD warnings issued across several Arkansas counties on Christmas day. Let's take a peak at the upcoming pattern.
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| River Valley snowfall (Jan 2019) |
Please be aware, this isn't a forecast. It's just one model run - I'm only including it to portray the pattern change into the weekend. If the EURO solution verified (image above) some snowfall/winter mix could sneak into northwest/northern Arkansas on Sunday/Monday. The GFS model is less aggressive with this system, keeping the bulk of frozen precipitation north of Arkansas.
I feel like the EURO may be a bit aggressive, but this solution isn't uncommon given the time of year. Temperatures will likely be too warm elsewhere, leaving the higher elevations of northern Arkansas to deal with any frozen precipitation.
To throw a kink into the mix, the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook actually favors above average temperatures across much of the country through Christmas Eve. This doesn't mean that cold air can't and won't occur, it's just based off the average.
Just for fun, I've included the LONG range temperature data from the GFS on Christmas day. If this model verified (don't hold your breath); temperatures would be fairly different across Arkansas around mid-day. I should note that the GFS is depicting a cold front moving through Arkansas at this time, so temperatures would be much cooler by that evening.
If you take anything from this blog, please understand that forecasting weather during this period of the year is very tough. I never go in-depth or attempt to confuse anyone. The verbiage and graphics above are plain and simple to understand. We will have a true idea on the weather pattern for Christmas as we get closer.
For now, we'll keep an eye on this weekend and monitor the temperature trends. Thanks for reading! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter, I'll include my profile link below:
-Zach
