Winter Weather? Snow Way!

Earlier this week I posted on social media that snowfall chances here at home (western Arkansas) didn't look so good for the near future. Mother nature must have heard my complaints, as it appears our next chance of winter weather is on tap tomorrow morning. This will be sort of odd, as it seems we normally experience a cold rain, then a switch to sleet and eventually snowfall. Tomorrow will be the opposite. 

A change from rainfall to a winter mix/snowfall should take place late tonight across regions of central Kansas. As this wave of moisture marches east, it will begin to transform as it interacts with subfreezing air. This should likely take hold as a persistent snowfall, as the mid levels of the atmosphere will support that. 

Simulated Radar (early Wednesday AM)

Snowfall/winter mix continues east 

By mid-morning, temperatures will slowly begin to climb across much of the region. This will cause snowfall to mix with sleet - eventually turning to a cold rain with surface temperatures still freezing (freezing rain). By the lunch hour, most of the frozen precipitation will have stopped across much of the south central U.S (aside from some high elevation regions).

There is always uncertainty when a winter weather event is approaching. Sleet mixing with snow will always reduce snowfall totals. How quick will the rainfall cut into the winter mix? Will temperatures really maintain the freezing mark? These can all have HUGE impacts on the forecast. 

As I'm typing this blog, I've already been made aware of some school closings across the local area. This is a tough call for schools, but I wouldn't be surprised if numerous rural districts close their doors tomorrow. It's very risky to run the morning school commute in conditions we could experience tomorrow morning. 

Thanks for reading, and remember to follow me and the Vortex Crew on Twitter. I'll link those accounts below as we update there often!

Twitter: https://twitter.com/wxzachary?lang=en - https://twitter.com/vortexchasing?lang=en

-Zach

Tornadoes, Snow, Flooding and More!

I chuckled a little bit while typing the title of this blog. Not that I'm laughing at the overall risk of a significant storm system, but that living in the southern United States offers some of the most unique and vast range of weather experiences. Sometimes all you can do is laugh. I'm Zachary Hall, I normally type up these weather blogs for our team here at the Vortex Crew.

This weekend round of weather is nothing new, in fact, we've seen these setups many times before. Warm humid gulf air advecting north leading to a wave of severe weather, with the advancement of cold air and perhaps some snowfall on the backside. Let's dig into it.

First and foremost, we will likely experience a wave of thunderstorms on Friday into the evening hours. I'm comfortable in stating that the "Arklatex" region could experience the highest risk of severe weather, including tornadoes. However, the Storm Prediction Center has included a vast region of the south central U.S.

We should begin to see an uptick in thunderstorm activity by Friday afternoon in southeast Oklahoma and eastern Texas. The trick with this system will be monitoring any "pre-squall line" isolated storm development. These isolated storms would offer the best chance for a heightened tornado risk. Regardless you can likely bet on a strong line of thunderstorms advancing east Friday night into Saturday through the lower Mississippi valley.

All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Remember tornadoes can still occur within a squall line. Although they are normally short lived, we recently experienced one in northwest Arkansas (near Rogers) that inflicted plenty of damage. Be mindful of this!

As for the snow chatter...... I'm not 100% sold on this. This may be due to the complete lack of snow over recent past. REGARDLESS, I'm including the latest run of the EURO model (image above). As thunderstorms progress east, there could be some wrap around snowfall/winter mix in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. It should be noted that the EURO model is pretty aggressive with this solution. The NAM and GFS are much more reserved. I have no shame in saying I didn't include them for the sake of sanity of all of you snow lovers.

(Please read that last line a few times)

It seems as if the better chances for a more significant snowfall will occur in eastern Kansas into Missouri. Just something to watch for now, the severe weather is by FAR the bigger story this weekend.

Did you think we were done? Nope! As we move into the late night hours of Friday into Saturday - an additional round of severe weather is possible across the deep south region. I won't elaborate much on this for now, as data is still limited. Regardless, you can likely expect our normal suspects of severe weather.

Flash flooding is often overshadowed in severe weather events. I'm here to tell you that this should never be overlooked, thousands of people die every year in flash flooding. As we progress through the weekend, we will likely see very torrential rainfall due to severe thunderstorms. Here is a look at the EURO model precipitation accumulation. NEVER DRIVE INTO A FLOODED ROADWAY! EVER!

If you read this entire blog, I appreciate it. We will likely be out chasing severe weather this weekend. Remember to follow us on Twitter, you can also follow my personal Twitter, I'm always providing updates there too. I'll include those links below. As always, thank you for following!

Twitter links:

https://twitter.com/vortexchasing?lang=en

https://twitter.com/wxzachary?lang=en

Model data used from: WeatherBell.com

Christmas Weather - More Snow Soon?

Every single year a follower, friend, or family member will ask me "will it snow on Christmas this year?" I don't mind the question, as a white Christmas is always welcome with most people. I'm here to tell you that I, nor anyone, knows if it will snow on Christmas day right now. I can provide you with the current weather data at hand. Speaking in regards of climatology, it is fairly rare here in Arkansas.

That being said, it isn't unheard of. Who else remembers the snowstorm of Christmas, 2012? There were BLIZZARD warnings issued across several Arkansas counties on Christmas day. Let's take a peak at the upcoming pattern.

River Valley snowfall (Jan 2019)

Over the course of this upcoming week, our weather pattern is fairly tranquil. Nothing extravagant and fairly seasonal conditions. That could change by the close of the weekend. We could even see some winter weather on Sunday and into Monday morning.

Please be aware, this isn't a forecast. It's just one model run - I'm only including it to portray the pattern change into the weekend. If the EURO solution verified (image above) some snowfall/winter mix could sneak into northwest/northern Arkansas on Sunday/Monday. The GFS model is less aggressive with this system, keeping the bulk of frozen precipitation north of Arkansas.

I feel like the EURO may be a bit aggressive, but this solution isn't uncommon given the time of year. Temperatures will likely be too warm elsewhere, leaving the higher elevations of northern Arkansas to deal with any frozen precipitation. 

To throw a kink into the mix, the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook actually favors above average temperatures across much of the country through Christmas Eve. This doesn't mean that cold air can't and won't occur, it's just based off the average. 

Just for fun, I've included the LONG range temperature data from the GFS on Christmas day. If this model verified (don't hold your breath); temperatures would be fairly different across Arkansas around mid-day. I should note that the GFS is depicting a cold front moving through Arkansas at this time, so temperatures would be much cooler by that evening. 

If you take anything from this blog, please understand that forecasting weather during this period of the year is very tough. I never go in-depth or attempt to confuse anyone. The verbiage and graphics above are plain and simple to understand. We will have a true idea on the weather pattern for Christmas as we get closer. 

For now, we'll keep an eye on this weekend and monitor the temperature trends. Thanks for reading! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter, I'll include my profile link below:

https://twitter.com/wxzachary?lang=en

-Zach