Frigid Start For The New Year

New Year's Day High Temperatures (Courtesy NOAA)

We often see people stating "we haven't had a real winter in a long time". Well, those people are getting their wish this upcoming weekend. The stage is currently set for a large area of Arctic high pressure to dump absolutely frigid temperatures into Arkansas. We could experience a few days of highs below freezing, lows near zero in some areas, and very dangerous wind chill values. The real story of this weekend is the cold temperatures, but with cold weather snow is sometimes a possibility. Yes, we do have a small chance for some snow in parts of Arkansas this weekend. Models have came into an agreement on placement, but as we all know it will likely change. Forecasting snow is only accurate once its here. Let's dive into some models, and go over some minor specifics.

GFS model (courtesy Weatherbell.com)

With the cooler air in place it does appear that a disturbance moving across the state could spark some light snow. For now, and we stress FOR NOW, portions of western and northwest Arkansas appear to have the best chances. The reason we say this is that all models have came into an agreement on this, we have posted three models here to show you. The global forecast model (GFS) originally had large amounts of snow for this weekend, but has backed way off of that. Which is not uncommon for the GFS, now its showing more realistic amounts.

Solar Eclipse

Exactly one month from today, (August 21st, 2017) a total solar eclipse will sweep across America, casting millions of people into temporary darkness. The first total solar eclipse to sweep across the United States in almost a century will largely darken all of Arkansas as the moon casts a shadow on the state. This will be the biggest astronomical event America has witnessed in years. But even if you

Path of Total Eclipse and % of Obscuration

are just finding out about the eclipse, it's not too late to plan for the big event. Here is what you need to know:

A total solar eclipse will pass along a thin strip of land that stretches from the northern West Coast to the southern East Coast on Aug. 21, according to current projections. During a total eclipse, the moon directly overlaps the sun and turns the day almost as dark as night. Because the moon, the sun, and the Earth do not align perfectly for most of the country, Arkansans will only experience a partial eclipse. Most, though not all, of the sun will be obscured. From Little Rock's perspective, the moon will start to edge in front of the sun around 11:47 a.m., at 1:18 p.m. most of the sun’s face, (about 90 percent), will be concealed, and by 2:46 p.m., the moon will have moved on. During this time, the outer section of the moon's shadow, the penumbra, will shade the state. These times do not vary much throughout the state with Max arriving at 1:12 in Fort Smith and 1:22 in Memphis, TN.

8/21/17 Solar Eclipse Times for Little Rock

The last total eclipse to cross the country from coast to coast was June 8, 1918, according to NASA. A total eclipse is only possible because of a “cosmic quirk,” according to NASA’s website. The moon’s diameter is 400 times narrower than the sun’s, but it’s also 400 times closer, so the moon and sun falsely appear as the same size. When they align exactly right, the moon can obscure the sun entirely, thus creating a total eclipse. 

Interesting fact: The next total solar eclipse in America will be April 8th, 2024. During this solar eclipse, Arkansas will be in the path of totality (meaning 100% darkness)!! 

Resources: usno.navy.mil, NASA.gov, & arkansasonline.com

Severe Weather Returns

Severe weather in late June is not common, but it's not unheard of; living in Arkansas you know we have to expect anything. It does appear that portions of Arkansas will see some severe weather on Friday, this is not an expected outbreak of tornadoes, or crazy severe weather chaos. However, we always have to be vigilant, you can never let your guard down. Let's dig into the main points..

• FOR NOW, it appears that there will two rounds of thunderstorms due to a weak cold front moving south, both rounds could be severe. One round looks likely early Friday morning, probably after 4-5 AM or so. Another round looks possible as we finish Friday off, with storms entering western Arkansas sometime around 9-10 PM or so.
• It does appear that portions of west central, and northwest Arkansas have the highest chance to see any severe weather. This does NOT mean that other parts of the state can't and will not see any severe weather. 
• Storms will enter from the west, and move east in the both rounds, storms should weaken the farther they move east.
• It is possible that storm development could be stalled tomorrow evening, it really depends on the amount of convection left in the atmosphere. 

We have included the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center as usual, as you can see portions of northwest Arkansas are under an "enhanced" risk area. Other parts of northern and west central Arkansas are in the "slight" risk area. This blog is being posted at 11 PM on 6/29/17, this graphic could change before storms arrive so be aware of that. 

SPC Graphic for 6/30/17 Storms

As we stated earlier in the blog, it looks like there is two rounds possible with these storms. We'll include some model graphics from the NAM 3k model to help explain this. The model posted below shows storms entering northwest Arkansas tomorrow morning. Damaging winds will be the main threats with these storms. 

Morning Round

The next graphic shows storms also moving into western Arkansas tomorrow in the late evening hours. Once again the main threat looks to be heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Remember, there is a chance this round could get stalled out depending on the convection available. We will simply just have to wait and see.. 

Evening Round

Key points of this event:

-Main threats are damaging winds and heavy rainfall (isolated tornado can never be ruled out)

-Storms SHOULD weaken as they move to the east

-Two rounds possible, keep an umbrella handy

-Main threat area is west central, and northwest Arkansas. General area to advise is Fort Smith north to the general NWA area. 

Be safe, and God bless! 

-AW Team 

Memorial Day Weekend Storms

Memorial Day weekend is one of the busiest holiday weekends of the year. According to the AAA, nearly 40 million people are expected to travel across the nation. This poses a great risk for several areas across the southern United States this weekend due to possible severe weather. This does include Arkansas, hence the reason for posting this blog! It wouldn't be normal if Arkansas didn't have a wild weather swing just in time for a big holiday. Remember, we are still at mid-week, so things could change, but we don't expect much to change. Let's dig into a few specifics!

• The day we are really watching is Saturday. It looks as if Saturday has the potential for some very strong storms. There is a marginal threat for severe weather Friday. We will explain the differentials in these two days in this blog. 
• As of right now (5/24/17) there is no Storm Prediction Center outlook issued for this weekend with the traditional risk areas. However, there is a standard 15% outlook area that does include the WHOLE state. This will be posted below.
• With the whole state in a risk area, this does pose the question for timing. As of right now areas in the western portions of the state should see storms in the late afternoon into the evening hours. The farther east you go, the later in the evening for storm chances.  
• It does appear that all modes of severe weather are possible (mainly Saturday). Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes; some possibly strong. 

As we mentioned above, the SPC does not have a traditional outlook posted at this time. However, we do have a 15% risk area highlighted. You can see in the graphic posted below, they do indeed have the entire state highlighted for Saturday's possible severe event. We believe that northern, and western, Arkansas has the highest severe probabilities for Saturday. That being said, we cannot rule out severe storm chances in other portions of the state. In fact, it would not be surprising at all if a few tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings went out in far southern, and eastern, Arkansas Saturday evening. 

Saturday SPC Outlook (15% highlight)

Lets dive into Friday's storm chances, which are lower than Saturday. The SPC has a small portion of Northern, Arkansas included in a "marginal" risk area. There will be plenty of instability for storms to work with on Friday. The only problem is there will be a strong capping inversion that should highly limit storm development. We have spoken of the "CAP" before in recent forecasts. When a layer of warm humid air sets up in the atmosphere, this limits severe storms. This is a good thing, and what we want for Friday evening. Should the CAP break, storms could fire up and turn severe quickly. The likelihood of this is low, which is why we aren't spending too much time on this. We have posted the SPC outlook for Friday below. 

Friday Severe Weather Outlook

Now let's take a look at the instability values, or "CAPE" for Saturdays storms. We have included a look here at the NAM 12-km model. As you can see here, very unstable air will be present for most of the state. You will be able to literally feel the instability in the air Saturday. The warm humid air will be extremely abundant, which is needed for that strong-severe storm development. Values at near 6000 J k/g are not unheard of, but not common either. The NAM does have a knack of "over-doing" things sometimes. However, this model really lines up with the other models we've been looking at as well. Regardless, the fuel needed for severe weather will very much be there for Saturday. We will be watching this, and future model runs very close. 

NAM 12-km CAPE Values 

None of the above material is posted to scare anyone, or make anyone pack up their belongings and leave the state. It's May folks, and we live in Arkansas. Severe weather happens, and it looks likely for Saturday. You know we don't sugarcoat things here at Arkansas Weather, but we also don't "hype" weather events. As of now, it appears that the round of storms for Saturday will be fairly strong. Yes, tornadoes are possible, some possibly stronger than the usual squall line spin ups. Stay tuned to the page and we will have updates and any changes as we move closer. We hope you enjoyed the blog, and thanks for keeping up with us. Remember, stay weather aware, and share! God bless.

-AW Team 

Thursday Severe Weather

Who else is ready for some more storms? 


It appears another round of severe weather is possible for Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. This round of severe weather does not appear at this time to be as significant as our last round of storms. With that being said, any storm system in the spring severe season must be watched closely (especially in May). According to recent model updates, storms should be on a weakening trend as they move east into Arkansas. In this blog update, we will give you a quick synopsis on our thinking, and what the models have been showing. Lets get into it. 

• Storms look to arrive later in the day on Thursday, probably after 4-5 PM. Some storm development looks possible beforehand, but shouldn't be widespread.
• This round of storms looks to hold more of a severe hail threat (hail one inch in diameter or more). 
• As usual with these storms, damaging winds look to be a possibility.
• There is a tornado threat, but at this time it looks to be fairly low. With that being said, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. This is something we will monitor closely. 
• We are really highlighting the western and northern portions of the state, southeast and eastern, Arkansas may dodge the bullet with these storms. 

First we'll look at the Storm Prediction Centers outlook for Thursday. This blog is being posted late Tuesday night, so this map could, and possibly will be updated before Thursday. As you can see, there is a fairly sharp gradient that cuts across portions of southwest, Arkansas into northeast, Arkansas. Take this with a grain of salt, remember, this is just an outlook. We are only at a "slight" risk at this time, but this could be changed before Thursday. 

Looking over the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values, they aren't representing extreme instability. However, that doesn't mean that strong storms aren't possible. Any model with CAPE values near 3000 J/kg must be watched closely. We like showing the CAPE models, it helps correlate well with the SPC outlook. You can see the instability stretch from southwest, to northeast. 

By this point, you are probably eager to know when, and where these storms will be at what time. Remember, we can't pin point what time and exactly where a storm will be. However, we do have simulated radar models that can help give us a "general" idea. So take these with a grain of salt! Just take note, storm chances look highest after 5 PM or so, especially in western, Arkansas. Any storms that move into eastern, Arkansas will be later in the night. 

The first model posted below shows storm development in western, Arkansas sometime around 5 PM. 

This next model shows storms progressing and organizing in western, Arkansas sometime around 9-10 PM. 

Lastly, here is a model showing storms moving into central, Arkansas. Storms moving through around 12-1 AM. 

We know that some people struggle to find their county, town, or city on a map. It is hard for us, because most of the models and maps available do not list them! So, to help those of you out, we are posting a county map. Just look over models, and check the county map. This should help you get an idea if you are involved Thursday. Remember, these forecasts, and outlooks are very general. Weather forecasting is very tough, contrary to popular belief. We do the best we can, with what information we receive! 

Just remember, we are still a couple of days out from Thursday. Models will tweak some, but should remain somewhat similar. We like to post these blogs and updates a couple days out, so people are plenty aware. This is our second blog posted, we hope you are enjoying! Share this blog, and let's give folks that fair warning! God bless.

-AW Team 

Friday's Severe Storms 

This Friday marks our next chance for severe weather for the natural state. Wednesday turned out to be a little more calm then expected. With that being said, we still experienced several tornado warnings, and significant damage in areas across the region. Friday looks like it could be much of the same. Just remember, this is Wednesday night, and data will change tomorrow. We may have a few tweaks to the forecast come Friday. This blog is really just to give you some in-sight to why Friday is setting up to be another severe event. To help explain this all to you, we are breaking it down in a few bullet points. 

• Storms look to arrive Friday evening, looks like late Friday, or early Saturday morning (after midnight probably).
• For now, it looks like western, and portions of north central, Arkansas will have the "better" chances for severe weather. That being said, southern, Arkansas still could see a few severe storms. 
• All modes of severe weather appear possible: damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are in the realm of possibility. 
• These storms could be slow movers, this is not good for us. After receiving heavy rainfall already, flash flooding will become an issue. This could also delay the times when storms are expected to hit your town or city. 
• Some of the components of this forecast are still quite muddy, we will know much more tomorrow night, and especially on Friday. Here are the basics, and what we know right now. 

Let's dig into some models, and other graphics to help paint this picture. First, we'll look at the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) outlook for Friday. This graphic is valid for (4/26/17) at 10:00 PM posted here Wednesday night. Looking over the outlook, you can see the "enhanced" risk area stretching from west central, Arkansas all the way up to the northeast portions of the state. A "slight" risk area does exist for portions of south central, Arkansas. Once again, southern Arkansas could see a few storms from this, but should miss out on the severe event. The SPC outlooks change a lot, so be aware that this can, and probably will change before Friday. 

So let's talk some weather, and get down to the parameters for Friday. First, we will look at the supercell parameters, this is one of our favorite model outputs. It simply paints a picture for ingredients that support supercell development. It's fairly easy to see the supercell potential for Friday, mainly over portions of western, and northern, Arkansas. 

We also like to look at the significant tornado parameters when making a forecast. Now, this is not here to freak anyone out. However, it is something we have to be mindful of. The profile for this setup does support tornadoes, and this is something we will monitor extremely close. 

Lastly, we will check out the CAPE, or instability values for this setup. As you can see, there is no lack of energy when it comes to this Friday. Some areas are exceeding 3,300 J/kg. For those of you who don't know, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is the fuel needed for thunderstorm development. We have an entire post developed to CAPE on our Facebook page which goes much more in-depth. 

As with any storm system, there will be flaws in the forecast. Timing, strength, and possible location changes can occur. Hopefully you enjoyed this detailed look at what Friday night has in store for us. Remember, this looks to be a late night event, so have your weather radios ready! If you don't have a weather radio, we plead with you to have some kind of warning system. We will have any updates, and outlooks, posted on our Facebook page for this Friday nights storms. 

God Bless!

-AW Team