The Challenges of Forecasting Winter Weather

As of today, it appears that some Arkansas residents COULD be greeted by some winter weather for the upcoming weekend. For now, this is a low confidence event. This is simply due to the span of time from this evening, to the weekend. We simply published this blog to put you behind the computers, looking at the data, hoping to broadcast a better understanding at what we and other weather forecasters see. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!

• Bottom line, most of the state will likely see precipitation this weekend due to a stronger system. 
• The hard part of the forecast is trying to decipher who experiences just a plain rain, and who experiences frozen precipitation.  
• We don't mind saying now that it's likely some of us will see some sort of frozen precipitation, we just don't know the extent of it, nobody does.
•  Model data has been consistent in showing the idea of frozen precipitation, but it's been all over the place the last few days on the location and timing.

Friday Evening

Prior to any winter weather, we will likely see a cold rain on Friday. Notice the red line (labeled with 32) at the top of the model image? That's the freezing line (32 degrees or below), notice this line is well above the state into portions of Missouri. 

Late Friday/Early Saturday Morning

By late Friday night into early Saturday morning, things COULD get interesting. Notice the pink colors (winter mix) mixed with the green (rain). The GFS is trying to spit out some sort of winter mix as the freezing air begins to flush south. 

Lunch Time - Saturday

Fast forward to Saturday around lunch time. Notice the pink colors (winter mix) are still mixed with the green (rain). The GFS is continuing to try to spit out a winter mix for portions of northern Arkansas as the cold air remains stagnant around northern Arkansas. Notice the rest of Arkansas is green, as the freezing line is bottled around our northern border.

Late Saturday Night

Looking even further into late Saturday into early Sunday morning, we could still be dealing with some sort of wintry precipitation. Notice the freezing line has pushed further south, transitioning some of the rain to possibly snowfall. 

Now, you've seen our the latest accessible model data. Here is where it gets confusing. Let's take a look at different time frame model runs.

Saturday (Lunch Time) 12z run

Above is the GFS model valid for around lunch time on Saturday. This is the 12z run (the model run prior to the latest). Notice the freezing line is pushed well south, allowing a much more drastic change to winter weather well into southern Arkansas.

Now, here is the same exact model (GFS) for the same time period (lunch time Saturday). The only difference is the model run, as this is the 18z run (latest model data 6:56 PM 12-3-18). We've placed the same exact models here, only they are two different solutions. Notice in this model run the freezing line comes NOWHERE near to the extent of the previous run. If this solution verified, it would keep most of Arkansas at a cold rain with a winter mix for far northern Arkansas.

This is the frustrating part of trying to forecast winter weather. Every model run is different, we will NOT have a good idea of what could actually happen until right before the event (24-36 hours). Hopefully this helps better explain the situation. We know some of you may wonder about your city, or county, but we simply cannot give a valuable forecast at this time. 

Nonetheless, we'll be watching this all week and have updates as we get more information. Thank you for reading!

-AW

Friday Night Severe Weather

Good morning Arkansas! You've probably heard about or seen a few posts on social media regarding some stronger thunderstorms Friday evening. You may be asking, "why in the world are we dealing with severe weather in late November?". This is not all that uncommon, as much of the southern U.S. has a potent secondary severe season. A collision of two air masses, moderate instability, and some wind shear can spell trouble for Arkansas. 

The question is, do we have all of these ingredients for Friday? The short answer is sort of. We have wind shear, we have the collision of air masses, but we are lacking the instability. This sort of setup, (low CAPE, high shear) is also not uncommon for this time of year. Let's look at a few bullet points.

• It's going to warm up quite a bit on Friday, we wouldn't be surprised if some of southern Arkansas warms into the low 70's. 
• Some scattered rain is possible throughout the day. However, any organized thunderstorms shouldn't occur until after 4-5 PM.
• Several areas of thunderstorms could be on-going by 9-10 PM. The question is how many of these storms will be severe criteria storms. 
• By Saturday morning, most thunderstorm activity will be out of the state. 
• Our main risks for these storms are hail, damaging winds, and a moderate tornado threat.
• This is a concerning event, as we still have numerous high school football games to be played. Each school should have someone to pay close attention to the weather Friday evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk area (orange shading) for a large portion of Arkansas. A lower tier slight risk (yellow shaded) has also been issued, with most of the state with the potential of seeing some stronger storms.

Friday Early Afternoon

By Friday afternoon, some of us will begin to experience some scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. No severe weather is anticipated in the early afternoon.

Friday Evening

By Friday evening, we will begin to see an uptick in thunderstorm activity. There will be a severe risk with these storms, but we feel like the biggest threat is still to the west near Oklahoma. Notice how western Arkansas has been quiet for the most part, this could be a bad thing as instability is able to rise.

Late Friday/Early Saturday

By late Friday night/early Saturday morning, thunderstorms are still on-going. Some of the thunderstorms that do occur during this time frame could be the strongest, especially across western Arkansas. 

Saturday Morning

By Saturday morning, most thunderstorm activity is well to the east of Arkansas. Don't let the mild weather fool you, we will be back to freezing cold very soon. Also, some of us may see some more winter weather in the not too distant future! :)

-AW

Another Round of Snow!

Yes, you read this blog title correctly, more snow is possibly on the way! A trend over the last few years has kept warmer temperatures persistent through the months of October and November. This trend was ended this year, as we've experienced very cold temperatures thus far. A rather strong area of low pressure aloft will help aid in giving us snowfall chances Wednesday/Thursday. Instances involving a strong upper-level low can become somewhat difficult to forecast, as the track can completely alter a previously published forecast. However, confidence is high that areas across eastern and northeastern Arkansas could see an accumulating snowfall tomorrow evening.

Snow covered roads from 2012 in Sherwood (Pulaski County)

Some areas across central Arkansas and even portions of southern Arkansas may see a few flakes flying. In fact, moisture content could support snowflakes well across our state tomorrow, depending on temperatures. This being said, our focus is certainly across eastern and northeastern Arkansas where snow chances are MOST prevalent as of this time. We have several model images and further information below.

First and foremost, a winter weather advisory has been issued (11-13-18 8:25 PM) for numerous counties along our eastern border into northern and northeast Arkansas.

Due to our highest resolution model (HRRR) not being able to forecast behind tomorrow mid-day, we are using the simulated radar from the NAM (3KM) for this blog. There are several time-posted model images below.

Wednesday Morning

During the morning commute tomorrow, the NAM is suggesting some of us across southeastern Arkansas could see a few snow flakes already flying. Beware, this model could be overestimating this system. A safe bet would suggest this could be a very cold rain, or a winter mix. Nonetheless, don't be surprised if some of you see some snow early tomorrow morning. We believe this would be light and NOT cause any problems. However, we've been wrong before and some models do disagree (NAM) with this thinking.

Wednesday Evening

During the afternoon hours you can really see the low cranking forward in the simulated radar images. Data is suggesting the track will follow along our eastern border during it's track north/northeast.

Early Thursday Morning

Most model data is adamant that snow showers could linger into the early hours of Thursday morning, before finally exiting the state. Just how long the track of this low keeps this system stagnant in Arkansas is hard to forecast. This could also alter snow totals, as a slow moving track would support slightly higher totals!

Now for the favorite part, snow totals! Models are somewhat in agreement of where the most favorable areas for accumulation are. However, there is a few slight differences, see below.

EURO Snow Totals

The ECMWF (Euro model) is one of the more accurate models we use. It handled our recent event quite nicely, and we're confident in the data shown here. It does appear that 2-3 inches of snow could fall across portions of northeast Arkansas. With lower totals across eastern Arkansas (1 inch or less). Yes, it does appear possible that some snow could fall across central and maybe even NWA tomorrow. However, this snow fall SHOULD be light and not amount to much of anything.

GFS Snow Totals

The GFS model is also pretty similar, with most of the snow accumulation across northeast and eastern Arkansas. Notice this model is not as excited about snow chances over central and even NWA. This doesn't mean these areas cannot or will not see any snow.

NAM Snow Totals

Lastly, we're looking at the NAM model regarding snowfall amounts. Notice this model is not as similar to the other two. While snowfall is still expected across NE Arkansas (as seen in this model), more attention is shown across southeast Arkansas. We don't really agree with this models suggestion, but we still posted it regardless. We do believe portions of southeast Arkansas could see some light snowfall or a winter mix, but not 2-inches worth!

This could certainly cause issues on the roadways Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning. School closings are possible, we'll post those closing here on our blog page in our "school closing" section. Remember, we are dealing with a strong upper-level low. These sort of systems have been notorious for changing quickly and drastically altering the outcome of an event. If this were to occur, we'll have continuous updates on our Facebook/Twitter.

Thank you for reading!

-AW

November Snow - Who is in, who is out!

First and foremost, forecasting snow (or any winter weather) is one of the most challenging things in the field of meteorology. We may have an idea on how a scenario will play out, but winter weather has a vast mind of it's own, and will do as it pleases. With this being said, it is still a lot of fun to attempt a winter weather forecast. During this time of year models will gradually begin to bring snow/winter mix into the longer range solutions. These solutions usually get thrown around and then vanish.

Snowy weather back on January 20th, 2011 in NWA.

What we look for in models regarding winter weather is a trend and consistency. Over the last few days we've seen both of these things. There is some vary among the models, some sort of outlandish, but there is consistency. Let's take a look at a few bullet points before we look at some model output.

• The time period we're speaking of is on Monday evening (11-12-18). Prior to any winter weather, most of us will see some rainfall. It will be a cold rain as well, with temperatures ranging in the 30's and 40's. 
• The changeover for any sort of wintry precipitation would likely occur after 3-4 PM. This will mostly involve the northern half of our state. Don't lose hope yet though, we'll show you a few models below that say different.
• As of right now, this does not appear to be a "big" snow as one might call it. A dusting to maybe 1-2 inches in spots is possible, but we don't feel comfortable going beyond that. As we mentioned earlier, winter weather has a mind of it's own, so be prepared...
• By Tuesday afternoon we're completely dry, but very chilly with temperatures struggling to climb out of the 30's during the afternoon hours. 

Now for the favorite part of the blog, the model data: 

***DISCLAIMER***

This is just model output, each scenario could play out, these models are NOT our own forecast. We'll have our own forecast at the end of the blog.

GFS

First, we'll take a look at the GFS model. This model is notorious for being very aggressive with precipitation and temperatures. This can be a deadly combination for a forecast, as the models are really over-doing temperatures which lead to more snow/winter weather output. This model image looks really nice for snow lovers, which shows a nice swath of snow moving west to east. 

However, this is just one model and likely a bit much.

ECMWF

Next, we'll take a look at the ECMWF, or "Euro" for short. This model is by far the most conservative as far as wintry precipitation. Notice NWA in this model image is cold enough for anything frozen, while all else is just a cold rain. This model is by far the most boring output, but usually one of the more accurate. If you are a snow lover, this model is NOT your friend. However, if one was to bet on this system, this model would be a handy sidekick.

NAM

Lastly, let's take a look at the North American Model or "NAM" for short. This is the 18z run, let us tell you now, this model has gone absolutely bonkers. The amount outputs show values of right at 10 inches of snow Monday evening. Yes, you read that right, 10 inches of snow. Is this likely? No. 

The NAM is sort of like the GFS, as it has a problem with overexerting temperatures and wintry weather in it's outputs. If you are a snow lover, this model is your friend, above of all else. Notice the model image has the snow/wintry weather (shaded blue) moving west to east and covering a large area. This model keeps the snow well to the south into much of the state, as we stated earlier, fun to look at, but highly unlikely.

As for our forecast, as promised, we're taking the more conservative route. Any winter weather could certainly reach further south than the area we have highlighted. If models begin to suggest different, we'll update our forecast and post it on our Facebook/Twitter. Northern Arkansas is certainly favorable for any sort of winter weather. We did not highlight it on this graphic, but the higher elevations of the Ouachitas could see some of the action as well. 

Bottom line, this is NOT a huge blizzard/snow storm. Winter weather could develop on the backside of the expected rain as temperatures dip below freezing. This could result in a dusting, to maybe 1-2 inches of snow in isolated areas. We'll have updates soon, as we continue to monitor data! Thank you for reading.

-AW

Dangerous Thunderstorms on Monday

***This will be a longer blog than usual, we plead with you to take the time to read thoroughly. Dangerous storms are possible Monday***

Arkansas' secondary severe weather season is in full swing, we will get a taste of this on Monday evening. Unlike our last round of severe weather, this could be a little more potent. Luckily, most of the state may be able to avoid the bulk of the nasty stuff. With this being said, our page covers the entire state of Arkansas, we don't want anyone being left out. Regardless of specifics, the threat of severe weather is possible for a large chunk of the state, but as we mentioned earlier, some of the nastiest stuff MIGHT occur just to the east of Arkansas. As all of you are aware, weather can change quickly, so we must remain vigilant over the next 48 hours. Let's look at some bullet points and get into detail.

• Storm chances will begin to increase on Monday afternoon, mostly across central Arkansas. Most of western Arkansas looks to avoid any major storm chances, but we'll watch that closely. 
• As of this morning, we believe the best chances for any organized severe weather will occur after 3-4 PM and last until around 12-1 AM. For those of you wondering about areas involved, we believe areas from central Arkansas and east to the Mississippi border have the greatest chances. We will have graphics below to better explain this.
• All modes of severe weather will be possible with this round of storms. Damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes are possible. There is a threat for stronger, long lived tornadoes with this event as well. Don't panic over this, we will have full a explanation on this below.
• Severe weather looks very likely on Monday, but hopefully thunderstorms will struggle to develop here in Arkansas. This is a possible outcome as storms may not fully strengthen until they move east out of the state. This is our hope, so cross your fingers!
• Our neighbors to the east, especially in the Mississippi River Valley look to take the full brunt of this system. Eastern Arkansas has the highest chances regarding severe weather on Monday, this is fully explained below.

SPC issued risk areas for Monday

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their outlook this afternoon regarding Monday evening. Most of our eastern border has been encompassed in an "enhanced" risk area. A "slight" risk area has also been issued covering areas well into central Arkansas. Some of this area could be upgraded to a moderate risk area before Monday evening, if so we will update this on the Facebook page.

Monday afternoon thunderstorm activity

We've included several model images to help better portray the possible time frame of the thunderstorms. The above posted model is valid for Monday afternoon, notice thunderstorm activity begins to increase in coverage. While not all of these thunderstorms will be severe criteria, some certainly could be. 

Monday evening thunderstorm activity

By Monday evening, there isn't much change. Thunderstorm coverage is still well underway, we fully expect these storms to be rather strong during their track east. Notice the increase of organized thunderstorm structure across eastern Arkansas.

Late Monday thunderstorm activity

By late Monday, we STILL could be dealing with some stronger thunderstorms. However, if you'll notice the storms are well on their way east out of the state. We cannot say for sure, but hopefully the severe weather chances will begin to decrease as thunderstorms continue to train over the same areas. 

Tuesday morning 

By Tuesday morning, the state is cool and quiet. All thunderstorm activity will be well to the east of Arkansas leaving us with cooler weather to start our morning. Temperatures could dip into the high 30's across northwest Arkansas Tuesday morning behind this cold front.

So now we've covered areas involved and a possible time frame for these thunderstorms. Now what about the severity of these storms? We mentioned earlier that there is a slightly heightened chance for tornadoes on Monday. Like our last event, the CAPE (convective available potential energy) is not off the charts, which isn't unusual for November. However, the atmosphere is showing signs of potentially being highly sheared. This simply means that winds will be turning with height, which ultimately leads to conditions conducive for tornado development.

Highest tornado probabilities 

We don't usually do anything like this, but we felt it was needed to help better explain our statements. Above we've included a graphic with an area highlighted in red. This area, in our opinion, has the highest tornado probabilities in regards to Monday evening. This does NOT mean that a tornado will not occur outside of the area we've highlighted. Rather, this area appears to have the needed "ingredients" conducive for tornado development, as we mentioned earlier. 

To conclude this blog we've included a graphic from the National Weather Service explaining the different issued risk ares. As we mentioned earlier portions of Arkansas have been encompassed in an enhanced and slight risk area. Hopefully after reading this blog you have a better understanding of the upcoming weather Monday. If anyone has any questions, feel free to message us or comment on Facebook. 

Stay weather aware!

-AW

Halloween Forecast Blog - Severe Weather Possible

Happy Halloween! The spooky holiday looks to be quite nasty this year, as we've mentioned for the last few days. Soggy wet weather, a few stronger thunderstorms, and wild temperature swings are in store for the next 48 hours. Hopefully the kiddos have had a chance to claim their candy, as tomorrow evening looks nothing like trick-or-treating weather. We'll go over all the details in this blog, let's dive into it.

• As of this afternoon (10-30-18), temps are ranging from the low to mid 70's, to a few lower 80's across eastern and southern Arkansas. This will change quickly as Thursday afternoon looks chilly with high's in the 40's and 50's.
• A cold front will be responsible for the temperature shift, this cold front could also spark a few stronger thunderstorms on Halloween, mostly across southern and eastern Arkansas. 
• Rain chances will begin to increase late Tuesday evening, sadly it appears this rain will linger throughout Wednesday and Thursday, before exiting the state Friday.
• In regards to severe weather tomorrow evening, there is some concern. While the overall severe threat is NOT extremely high, it must be watched closely. We'll have more detail on this below.
• Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and an isolated tornado or two is possible. This appears to be a higher shear, lower CAPE event. For those weather geeks out there, this means the tornado threat could be slightly higher than normal. HOWEVER, we are not expecting an outbreak of tornadoes or anything significant.

Western Arkansas will begin to see the impacts of the incoming cold front first. As rain chances will start to increase later tonight. Notice in the simulated radar image above, you can clearly see precipitation along the front itself across eastern Oklahoma. 

Fast forward to Wednesday afternoon (Halloween), the rain and some thunderstorms are still on-going. This simulated radar image is valid for Wednesday afternoon. While some of these storms could be stronger, we expect most of the severe activity to take place during the evening hours.

Notice the line of thunderstorms appears to take on a more organized structure. We expect a large linear line of thunderstorms to begin to increase in intensity during it's track east. This will be the main area and time frame of concern. Severe weather chances will begin to increase likely after 4-5 PM.

By early Thursday morning, the severe threat should be completely diminished. Lingering rain will still be present, but any organized severe weather should be well to the south and east of Arkansas.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk area for portions of southern and eastern Arkansas for Halloween. We've created our own graphic and placed it above (yellow shaded area), this area accounts for the expected development tomorrow evening. If you don't live in the shaded area, you could still see a few stronger thunderstorms. However, we fully expect this to be the focal point of any severe weather.

Thursday will be MUCH cooler, check out the expected temperatures Thursday afternoon. Lingering rain and cloud cover will keep us very cool. Some areas may not get out of the 40's Thursday afternoon, while others will be stagnant in the low to mid 50's.

Hopefully you enjoyed reading this blog, if you have any questions feel free to send us a message or comment on Facebook. We will try to answer any questions you may have, as we know this is an important day for many people!

-AW

Very Cool Weather Coming - Tuesday Night Severe Weather

It's probably safe to say that most of you are ready for a cool down and a break from our summer-like pattern. We're happy to tell you that this break is indeed coming, but it doesn't come without a price. Stronger thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening/late night as the expected cold front moves through Arkansas. In this blog we'll go over intensities, timing, and the areas that should be most effected.

• It will still be fairly warm and humid on Tuesday ahead of the expected cold front. Some storms could initiate during the afternoon hours, but our main concern is during the overnight (early Wednesday morning).
• If our model data holds true, a large linear (squall line) of thunderstorms should stretch across the state from north to south. This complex will move east, gradually dissipating as it tracks east.
• By Wednesday afternoon, the severe threat is completely gone and the cold front will slowly take over! Temperatures could dip into the low 40's for some of us early Thursday morning.
• The colder air looks to hang around for the next several days, giving us a much needed break from warmer temperatures. 
• In regards to our severe weather chances, our main concerns are damaging winds. However, an isolated tornado or two is possible with this system.

Western Arkansas appears to have the greatest chance for any severe weather Tuesday evening. Central Arkansas is NOT included at this time, due to the belief that any storms should lose intensity during their track east. However, this "slight" risk area could certainly be expanded further east. 

Here is a look at simulated radar Tuesday evening. Notice there is some isolated thunderstorm activity in this model across central and western Arkansas. While these storms could be stronger, this isn't the main complex to be concerned of. Notice the large and more organized system to the west (in central Oklahoma) - this is the system we've been speaking of.

Fast forward a few hours and the system we're speaking of is making it's entry into the state. While this timing may not be perfect, we believe this system should enter the state sometime after 1-2 AM. This is also when this system could be at it's strongest as far as when it enters Arkansas. 

As you head to work Wednesday morning, some could be dealing with thunderstorms, while others are not. Notice the squall line has lost a large amount of intensity and organization as it moves east. While some of these storms could certainly still be on the stronger side, the severe risk should be lower.

By Wednesday afternoon, all thunderstorm activity has dissipated and the severe risk diminished. 

Check out those temperatures! Once the thunderstorms are gone, the cold front will slowly make it's entry into the state. Thursday morning look's chilly for some of us, with NWA possibly dipping into the low to mid 40's. For those of you across southeast Arkansas, don't worry, the colder air will eventually reach you.

Lastly, we leave you with the latest 6-10 day outlook from the NOAA. If you'll notice, nearly the entire state of Arkansas is engulfed in a sea of dark blue! This means well below average temperatures are likely. High's in the 60's and lows in the 40's and maybe a few 30's....

We'll see! Thank you so much for reading, feel free to comment or message with any questions.

-AW

Deer Hunting, Flash Flooding, and Much Colder Air.

As you walk outside this morning, it feels nothing like late September. Warm, humid, and simply uncomfortable could be used to describe our current conditions. However, if you can survive today, you will outlast these conditions as we move into a much more favorable weather pattern. Archery season opens this Saturday for much of the state. In this blog we will cover your opening morning weather conditions, the chances for heavy rainfall, and the upcoming colder air pattern. 

So, what can those bow hunters expect for Saturday morning? Let's take a look.

If you plan on heading out to the blind or your favorite tree stand, you might bring your best rain gear. Much of the state will be soaking wet early Saturday, as a front ushers in colder air, it will also bring plenty of precipitation! 

The model posted above, the NAM (3-KM), is suggesting plenty of abundant moisture along the cold front. Notice most of the state is covered across the board for 6 AM Saturday. This will continue throughout the morning, with not much of a break in the rain. 

We've also included the 7-day (QPF) below. While amounts could change depending on the track of heavier rainfall, a broad look is suggesting upwards of 5-6 inches over the next 7 days. This could induce some flash flooding issues as the ground becomes saturated. 

In regards to rain chances in general, it appears the best rain chances begin to ramp up Friday evening as rain moves in from the west. This rain could hang around into the middle of next week! Don't worry though, with the pesky rain comes a great reward. 

Looking over the 8-14 Day Outlook from the NOAA, (model courtesy of Pivotalweather.com), MUCH cooler air will become present very soon. With a series of cold fronts, each one becoming stronger, it will become more fall-like very soon. This series of 90-degree days we've recently experienced could very well be the last we see for a long time. 

Just for fun, we've included a long range model for next Saturday (9-29-18). Check out those low 40's for early morning temps! 

In conclusion, opening morning of bow season looks soggy. Flash flooding COULD become an issue over the next 7-days due to heavier rainfall. Lastly, colder air will become more prevalent for late September into early October. We hope you enjoyed this blog, remember to like and share, spread the word!

-AW