We've just recently scanned over the newest high-resolution data, nothing has changed in our opinion. The warm front is currently lifting north, temperatures will begin to rise throughout the afternoon. We will see temps in the 60's and 70's throughout the day, making it feel very Spring like. The cold front that will initiate the severe weather today will gradually track east, cooling the atmosphere down once it passes. Portions of NWA will be in the high 30's to low 40's late tonight once the cold front has made it's trek east.
Southern, eastern, and portions of central Arkansas has the highest chances for severe weather today. Western, and portions of northern Arkansas could certainly see storm development today. However, if you refer to our latest blog post, we discussed the energy potential is MUCH greater the further south you travel. We hope this clears up any confusion today regarding the threat. A good rule of thumb is expect stronger storms, and have a plan ready. Our target area is all of southern Arkansas, areas across central, and eastern, Arkansas.
First and foremost, we all know everyone wishes to know the exact timing the storms will enter your area. We cannot tell you pinpoint the exact location and time, we can however give you an estimate. We apologize for the graphic posted above, we know it is not fancy, but with time constraints it will do for a quick blog. We posted the time stamps on a county labeled map to avoid any confusion, just look for your county and match the time stamps on the graphic. The reason for the separation of time is due to the front possibly moving slower, or faster, than expected. You must account for all variables in a situation such as this.
The latest high-resolution data has suggested a large group of individual cells could form pre-frontal in the late morning hours. These individual cells will hold a higher potential to become super cellular and become very strong. However, the CAPE in this area is somewhat limited. Hopefully, this will help diminish the threat, but it must be watched VERY closely. We've circled the area of cells we are speaking of in the model above.
By 4 PM the storms appear to take a more complex and grouped structure, this large complex of storms will still be very powerful as it tracks east. Notice by this time portions of western Arkansas are beginning to clear away as the storms move eastward.
High-resolution models then place the now linear complex of storms into parts of northeast, central, and south central Arkansas around 7 PM. This will be a large "squall-line" storm front. The tornado threat could become lower due to this, however with plenty of lift, and instability present, it could develop a few stronger tornadoes along the leading edge. The damaging wind risk will be fairly high with these storms, winds could easily exceed 70+ MPH along the frontal zone.
Lastly, the storms will begin to exit the state late tonight around the midnight hour. Cloud clover will begin to depart and temperatures will gradually cool off as the cold front continues eastward.
All modes of severe weather are possible today, damaging winds and tornadoes (a few possibly stronger) are our biggest concerns. Another big concern is the saturated grounds we are currently dealing with, especially across central, southwest, and northeast Arkansas. Large trees could easily become uprooted due to high winds tonight, this could cause hazardous conditions tonight across roadways. This storm will also dump plenty of rainfall, this will only agitate the flooding issue we are already experiencing.
We will have updates throughout the day and post warnings accordingly. Please pay close attention to our Facebook page if you have no way of receiving warnings. We fully expect a tornado watch to be issued for portions of Arkansas today, we will advise of this when it becomes apparent.
-AW Team
Model credits: http://models.weatherbell.com/
