- We DO NOT need rain right now, our soil is still very saturated from the heavy rains we just experienced. Preliminary models are suggesting parts of Arkansas could see over five inches of rain in the next 7-days.
- Rain and storms will move in later this afternoon, we are not anticipating any severe weather today. The rain that does move in today will hang around through Wednesday and eventually move out mid-day Thursday.
- There is a chance for strong to severe storms on Wednesday. Right now, the best chances for any severe weather looks to be in the late hours, moving into early Thursday morning.
- All modes of severe weather are possible, but our main concern is damaging winds. Remember, you do not need a tornado to cause significant damage. Parts of Arkansas experienced this last year with straight line winds exceeding 100 mph in areas.
- Some thunderstorms could develop tomorrow morning into the afternoon, but instability is limited. The main severe threat exists later Wednesday, into early Thursday.
- Current model guidance suggests the best chances for severe weather exists mainly south of I-40, especially southeast Arkansas.
You may ask, what is the culprit for the severe weather chances this week? A deep upper-level trough is forecast to progress across the Rocky Mountains Wednesday, along with southwesterly flow aloft. Dew-points will elevate into the mid to high 60's Wednesday afternoon. At surface level, a sharp cold front will progress east into Arkansas late Wednesday into the early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms will spark along this front, due to the dew point levels the atmosphere should remain unstable until the cold gradient of air overrides the warm air.
For now, a "Slight" risk area has been issued for mainly southern Arkansas Wednesday. The reason for the small area is due to instability being mostly prevalent across the southern area of the state. Other locations could certainly see thunderstorms, however those storms SHOULD remain under severe limits.
Temperatures will warm into the 70's across southern Arkansas Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain warm until the cool air eventually progresses east. These warm temperatures and moderate dew point levels will aid in day-time convection and instability.
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| NAM 3 km simulated radar |
The state will see rainfall for a large amount of time on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the time to watch for severe development will be likely after 10 PM or so Wednesday night. Notice the line of storms we have circled here on simulated radar. Late Wednesday night we are expecting a group of stronger singular cell storms, or a linear complex of storms. These storms will ride the boundary of the cold front, and eventually move east out of the state.
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| NAM 3 km simulated radar |
By early Thursday morning storms are STILL going on for a large part of the state. However, the severe risk will be diminished at this time. All the storms and heavy rainfall should be out of the state completely by around noon Thursday.
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| 168 HR QPF |
How about those rainfall totals for the next 7 days? Model guidance suggest we could see another 4-5 inches of rain in some areas in the next 7-days. With some spots possibly seeing near 6 inches, mainly across eastern Arkansas. This could cause further flooding issues and must be watched accordingly.
After the next few days, we will luckily get a break from rainfall as an area of high-pressure will settle over the central portion of the nation. This will contribute to clear and fair skies, giving us some much needed sunshine. Rain chances do look to return early next week, we will have more on that later. Remember to have a severe weather plan ready for Wednesday night, since storms could occur late at night have a way to receive warnings!
-AW Team
Model Credits: http://www.pivotalweather.com/ - http://www.noaa.gov/ - http://models.weatherbell.com/
