Dangerous Severe Weather Possible

In regards to weather patterns, 2018 has been somewhat odd. We've experienced early spring cold snaps, spring winter weather, and a rather quiet spring severe season. Speaking of the "quiet" severe weather season, while it was not as active as usual, we have still experienced over 20 tornadoes here in Arkansas. The total count could sadly go up over the next few days, as some rather dangerous thunderstorms could occur. While this blog is not being created to scare anyone, we do want you to be prepared. We are no longer in our usual spring severe season, so awareness will not be as high. June thunderstorms are certainly not uncommon, but this sort of setup resembles more of a April/May severe weather pattern.

• We have a few different rounds of thunderstorms possible, all of which hold a severe weather potential. Our first round will be Friday (6-22-18). Storm chances will exist throughout the late morning, into the afternoon and evening.
• Our next chance of severe weather arrives late Friday night/early Saturday morning. These storms could linger into the morning hours of Saturday. This round will likely arrive in the late hours of Friday, so be mindful of this. 
• We should get a minor break from thunderstorm activity during mid-day Saturday. Then, our next chances for thunderstorms arrive, once again holding a severe potential. This round seems to be our most concerning, due to a somewhat elevated tornado threat.
• After Saturday the storm activity begins to dwindle, Sunday and Monday look fairly dry with a return to warm and humid conditions. 
• In regards to who experiences thunderstorms, or rainfall for that matter, it's hard to single out any certain area. We can say that most of the state has a chance to see some sort of thunderstorm activity after the next few days. Please refer to our highlighted risk area for severe weather chances, however.

Highlighted Risk Area for Friday (6-22-18)

Friday morning looks active, with storm initiation possible as early as 8-9 AM. These thunderstorms should hug the state border to the south and southeast. Plenty of in-place instability should allow thunderstorms to strengthen quickly. It does appear that thunderstorm activity could last into the afternoon hours. Our main concern is damaging winds, some larger hail, and possibly a tornado or two. 

Highlighted Risk Area for Saturday (6-23-18)

Next, we progress into Saturday's severe weather potential. After looking over the model data tonight, the potential for an expansion on this risk area, as well as an upgrade to an enhanced risk is certainly possible. However, for now, we will follow the SPC guidance. This risk area also covers two rounds of severe weather chances. Early Saturday morning and Saturday evening. We'll have more defined information on this below.

Simulated Radar Image Early Friday

Here is a look at high-definition simulated radar for Friday morning/early afternoon. As you can see thunderstorm activity is under way. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe as they ride the boundary across southern Arkansas. 

Above is our next round of possible severe weather, this activity likely arriving early Saturday morning (1-2 AM). We have placed an arrow onto the model graphic, pointing to the simulated leading edge of the thunderstorm complex. Notice how model data is trying to depict a "bow-echo" type complex. These thunderstorms could spark a few spin up tornado warnings, but damaging winds should be our main concerns. In fact, damaging winds could become an elevated concern if these thunderstorms do follow this data setup. 

Lastly, we fast forward to Saturday evening. This round of thunderstorms may be more minimal in coverage, but could be quite dangerous. These thunderstorms will initiate in a more "sheared" environment, leading to a higher tornado threat than usual. This coupled with some amplified instability could mean stronger thunderstorms for certain areas. We will be monitoring this very close as we progress through Saturday evening.

Hopefully you enjoyed reading this quick blog, and have a better understanding of our next chance of thunderstorms. We will have necessary coverage over the next couple of days and will try and answer any questions you may have. Make sure you have a proper way to receive weather warnings, as we have mentioned, some of these thunderstorms may arrive late in the night. NEVER, we repeat, NEVER depend on outdoor sirens for a warning.

Stay tuned!

-AW Team

Model use accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/

Tornado vs Landspout

Today’s “tornado” in Prairie County has caused lots of our followers to message us & comment on our posts wondering what really occurred. Some have classified it as a tornado. Others say it was a landspout. So who is right on this matter?

Well the quick answer is “both” as a landspout is still a “type” of tornado; however, they are not exactly created equal. The process in which both form are completely different.

A tornado is spawned from a parent thunderstorm with a rotating updraft, but a landspout isn't. A landspout requires a towering cumulus cloud to be present over a boundary of converging winds near the surface. As that cumulus cloud grows and passes over the boundary, the rotating air is stretched vertically and eventually grows into a landspout. If you've ever seen a waterspout develop, it's very similar, except landspouts occur over land.

You're most likely to see landspouts in the High Plains and especially in Colorado, but as we saw in Arkansas today, they're certainly not limited to one region. Like waterspouts, you won't see a lot of damage caused by most landspouts, although it's not unheard of. Landspouts are generally short lived & weak. Some landspouts, however, have been rated as high as an EF-2!

Severe Thunderstorms This Evening

Good morning Arkansas! Hopefully you all have a great day planned, be prepared, it's going to be warm out. We also have the chance for some stronger thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Some of these storms could become severe. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has most of our state encased in a "slight" risk area for severe weather. 

• One thing is for certain today, it is going to be VERY hot. Heat index values could reach over 105 today, please be very careful if you plan on being outside.
• Things should remain fairly quiet for the most of the state until around 4-5 PM. This time-frame is when things begin to get interesting. 
• It appears a strong line of thunderstorms will form just north of our northern most border. As this complex of thunderstorms gets larger, it could stretch across most of the state. Some models disagree with this, we'll get into that later.
• Storms will track south throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. Once the main line of thunderstorms pass you, it should be over for your area. This entire situation is stemming from a cold front that will be moving through.
• Once we get rid of the thunderstorms a nice cold front will sweep through. This will bring much cooler dry air for Sunday morning, making it feel very comfortable outside.

5 PM Saturday (6-2-18)

Things will be pretty quiet for most of the day. Once we approach the 4-5 o'clock hour, things will start to change. The thunderstorm complex we've been speaking of will initiate and begin it's track south. 

9 PM Saturday (6-2-18)

By 9 o'clock the thunderstorms could be approaching the I-40 stretch, still moving south. Notice the line of storms is getting larger and more elongated to the west. Some models suggest this line could literally stretch across the entire state from west to east, while others, like the one posted above do not. Regardless, everyone has a chance at seeing some sort of thunderstorms this evening.

By early Sunday morning thunderstorms could still be on-going. At this time we believe the storms will really begin to lose intensity, before finally moving out of the state completely by Sunday morning.  

Taking a look at the instability values for this afternoon/evening it's obvious that we are setting on a loaded air mass. CAPE values exceeding 4,200 are not unheard of by any means. However, this is a great indication that these storms will have viable energy to tap into once they begin their movement south. 

The tornado threat is NOT there, a lack of helicity and low and mid-level wind shear will help inhibit the tornado risk; an isolated tornado along the frontal edge of the line of storms cannot be ruled out however. Our main concerns are very gusty damaging winds and significant hail. If you are in the direct path of these storms tonight please be very careful, as they could be very dangerous.

We'll have updates this afternoon and post any warnings on our Facebook.

-AW