- One thing is for certain today, it is going to be VERY hot. Heat index values could reach over 105 today, please be very careful if you plan on being outside.
- Things should remain fairly quiet for the most of the state until around 4-5 PM. This time-frame is when things begin to get interesting.
- It appears a strong line of thunderstorms will form just north of our northern most border. As this complex of thunderstorms gets larger, it could stretch across most of the state. Some models disagree with this, we'll get into that later.
- Storms will track south throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. Once the main line of thunderstorms pass you, it should be over for your area. This entire situation is stemming from a cold front that will be moving through.
- Once we get rid of the thunderstorms a nice cold front will sweep through. This will bring much cooler dry air for Sunday morning, making it feel very comfortable outside.
 |
| 5 PM Saturday (6-2-18) |
Things will be pretty quiet for most of the day. Once we approach the 4-5 o'clock hour, things will start to change. The thunderstorm complex we've been speaking of will initiate and begin it's track south.
 |
| 9 PM Saturday (6-2-18) |
By 9 o'clock the thunderstorms could be approaching the I-40 stretch, still moving south. Notice the line of storms is getting larger and more elongated to the west. Some models suggest this line could literally stretch across the entire state from west to east, while others, like the one posted above do not. Regardless, everyone has a chance at seeing some sort of thunderstorms this evening.
By early Sunday morning thunderstorms could still be on-going. At this time we believe the storms will really begin to lose intensity, before finally moving out of the state completely by Sunday morning.
Taking a look at the instability values for this afternoon/evening it's obvious that we are setting on a loaded air mass. CAPE values exceeding 4,200 are not unheard of by any means. However, this is a great indication that these storms will have viable energy to tap into once they begin their movement south.
The tornado threat is NOT there, a lack of helicity and low and mid-level wind shear will help inhibit the tornado risk; an isolated tornado along the frontal edge of the line of storms cannot be ruled out however. Our main concerns are very gusty damaging winds and significant hail. If you are in the direct path of these storms tonight please be very careful, as they could be very dangerous.
We'll have updates this afternoon and post any warnings on our Facebook.
-AW
