- We have a few different rounds of thunderstorms possible, all of which hold a severe weather potential. Our first round will be Friday (6-22-18). Storm chances will exist throughout the late morning, into the afternoon and evening.
- Our next chance of severe weather arrives late Friday night/early Saturday morning. These storms could linger into the morning hours of Saturday. This round will likely arrive in the late hours of Friday, so be mindful of this.
- We should get a minor break from thunderstorm activity during mid-day Saturday. Then, our next chances for thunderstorms arrive, once again holding a severe potential. This round seems to be our most concerning, due to a somewhat elevated tornado threat.
- After Saturday the storm activity begins to dwindle, Sunday and Monday look fairly dry with a return to warm and humid conditions.
- In regards to who experiences thunderstorms, or rainfall for that matter, it's hard to single out any certain area. We can say that most of the state has a chance to see some sort of thunderstorm activity after the next few days. Please refer to our highlighted risk area for severe weather chances, however.
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| Highlighted Risk Area for Friday (6-22-18) |
Friday morning looks active, with storm initiation possible as early as 8-9 AM. These thunderstorms should hug the state border to the south and southeast. Plenty of in-place instability should allow thunderstorms to strengthen quickly. It does appear that thunderstorm activity could last into the afternoon hours. Our main concern is damaging winds, some larger hail, and possibly a tornado or two.
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| Highlighted Risk Area for Saturday (6-23-18) |
Next, we progress into Saturday's severe weather potential. After looking over the model data tonight, the potential for an expansion on this risk area, as well as an upgrade to an enhanced risk is certainly possible. However, for now, we will follow the SPC guidance. This risk area also covers two rounds of severe weather chances. Early Saturday morning and Saturday evening. We'll have more defined information on this below.
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| Simulated Radar Image Early Friday |
Here is a look at high-definition simulated radar for Friday morning/early afternoon. As you can see thunderstorm activity is under way. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe as they ride the boundary across southern Arkansas.
Above is our next round of possible severe weather, this activity likely arriving early Saturday morning (1-2 AM). We have placed an arrow onto the model graphic, pointing to the simulated leading edge of the thunderstorm complex. Notice how model data is trying to depict a "bow-echo" type complex. These thunderstorms could spark a few spin up tornado warnings, but damaging winds should be our main concerns. In fact, damaging winds could become an elevated concern if these thunderstorms do follow this data setup.
Lastly, we fast forward to Saturday evening. This round of thunderstorms may be more minimal in coverage, but could be quite dangerous. These thunderstorms will initiate in a more "sheared" environment, leading to a higher tornado threat than usual. This coupled with some amplified instability could mean stronger thunderstorms for certain areas. We will be monitoring this very close as we progress through Saturday evening.
Hopefully you enjoyed reading this quick blog, and have a better understanding of our next chance of thunderstorms. We will have necessary coverage over the next couple of days and will try and answer any questions you may have. Make sure you have a proper way to receive weather warnings, as we have mentioned, some of these thunderstorms may arrive late in the night. NEVER, we repeat, NEVER depend on outdoor sirens for a warning.
Stay tuned!
-AW Team
Model use accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/
