Let's take a look at some bullet points regarding our setup today.
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued their convective outlook for today (7-20-18). Northeast Arkansas has been encompassed in an "enhanced" risk area. While additional portions of Arkansas have been included in a "slight" risk area. This graphic can be viewed below.
- To make things plain and simple, northeast Arkansas is our target area for tomorrow. This includes cities such as: Jonesboro, West Memphis, Paragould, Walnut Ridge, Batesville, and Searcy.
- Thunderstorms could begin to make their trek southeast as early as 11 AM - 12 PM. Some of our models are less aggressive on this idea, while others don't shy away from the idea of quick initiation. The best advice we can issue is to remain weather aware throughout the day.
- Thunderstorm chances could exist throughout the evening hours into the overnight, before we dry out tomorrow (Saturday). Don't let the severe weather chances overshadow the risk of VERY warm temperatures today as well. Heat advisories will be issued.
- Our main threat concerns are our usual suspects, including very heavy rainfall rates, gusty damaging winds, larger hail, and possibly a few isolated tornadoes.
A quick look at CAPE values (convective available potential energy) helps paint the picture for the atmospheric setup today. In plain terms, the atmosphere will be extremely buoyant, giving way to accelerated thunderstorm development. You will likely see thunderstorm tops billowing from miles away as storms begin to build quickly.
Our next model we have posted is the NAM-3km Significant Tornado Parameters. We don't often show this model, as we NEVER want to entice panic among our followers. However, if it grabs your attention then our mission is accomplished in terms of awareness. As you can see values are not off the chart, but we do have a limited risk of rotating updrafts, which could ultimately lead to a few isolated tornadoes. Remember, we do NOT expect an outbreak of any sort, but rather a few stronger thunderstorms.
Looking over some of our simulated radar model imagery, thing are sort of messy. This is to be expected, as painting a clear picture of isolated thunderstorms can be of the upmost difficulty. However, models are in agreement that isolated thunderstorms could form along the boundary and move southeast tomorrow. Where exactly these thunderstorms setup is unknown, and will not be known until they arrive. This is the reason for the outlined risk areas for northeast Arkansas. Some of you may not see a drop of rain, while the town 20 miles to the east gets bombarded by a stronger thunderstorm.
Lastly, we have included our target risk areas for severe weather. This graphic is tailored after the Storm Prediction Center's outlook. Notice the orange "enhanced risk" area filled over northeast Arkansas, while a "slight risk" area encompasses areas to the west, south, and northwest. It should be mentioned that an even higher threat of severe weather exists just to the northeast in portions of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Indiana.
As always, hopefully you enjoyed the blog and are better aware of the weather where you live. If you have any questions, feel free to message us on Facebook or Twitter and one of our team members will be glad to speak with you. Thanks for reading!
-AW
