- Most of us woke up to temperatures in the 30's this morning, with wind chills in the low 30's and high 20's. This is not common, we are well below average for April.
- For Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday we will gradually creep warmer each day. It looks like the best chance for rain will be northern Arkansas later today (Sunday) with a chance for an isolated shower or two.
- Once we arrive at Friday we will experience much more Spring like temperatures throughout the day with most of us reaching low to mid 70's.
- A cold front will progress east towards Arkansas Friday evening, eventually moving through Friday night into early Saturday.
- As this cold front moves east thunderstorms will form a long the front. This is still considered long range, but models have been consistent with showing plenty of unstable energy for storms to work with (read further below).
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| Very chilly morning (4-8-18) |
It is very non-spring like this morning, with most of us at or below freezing. Northern Arkansas is experiencing wide spread temperatures in the 20's, with wind chills nearing the teens. We made a post on Facebook awhile back regarding not planting yet, this was what we were talking about! See, we aren't crazy after all.
There is a chance of rainfall today (Sunday) and tomorrow (Monday). The best chances exist for today, mostly across northern Arkansas. Notice the snow showers across southern Missouri, it will be close, but we should be too warm for any snow. However, we've been wrong before and you never know what could happen.
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| Warm temperatures Friday (4-13-18) |
Now, Friday of this upcoming week is still considered long range talk, but models have been consistent with southerly flow from the gulf, thus raising temperatures and ushering in warm moist air. It will feel MUCH more Spring like during the late week period.
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| Our target areas for late week severe weather |
With much warmer air, and plentiful moisture (mid-60 dew points), the environment will be somewhat amplified prior to the expected cold front Friday evening. It appears the strongest storm production could miss us just to the west in Oklahoma. However, western Arkansas will still have plenty of instability to work with as storms move east along the front. We do expect the storms to die off gradually as they move east into a less unstable environment. That being said, central Arkansas could certainly see their fair share of stronger storms.
The storm prediction center has caught onto the model data as well, already highlighting a 15% risk area for most of the state for their day-6 convective outlook. This is not uncommon, as we are entering our peak season for severe weather. It is a little early for specifics, but all modes of severe weather will be likely. We'll have updates throughout the week regarding this system.
-AW Team
Model use accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/
