- We could warm up to near 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon, especially across southern and eastern Arkansas. These warmer temperatures will help aid in day-time convection for thunderstorm development.
- Dew points will be somewhat elevated, with readings near 70 in certain areas. This muggy low level moisture will also aid in thunderstorm development.
- Eventually, a cold front will progress southeastward towards Arkansas later in the day Tuesday. Along the edge of this cold front we should start to see thunderstorm development.
- Some of the storms that do develop could be stronger, especially across southern and eastern Arkansas where the highest instability is located.
- Time frame looks to be around 4 PM and after, eventually the cold front will progress entirely through the state diminishing storm chances early Wednesday morning.
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| Our target area for possible severe weather Tuesday (4-3-18) |
In the graphic placed above we have highlighted our target area for the most LIKELY severe weather development. Portions of NWA could see a few thunderstorms, but instability is lacking in this area. Latest model guidance has suggested plenty of CAPE (fuel for thunderstorms) across central, southern, eastern, and even northeastern Arkansas for Tuesday. With day time temperatures climbing into the 70's and plentiful moisture, this will induce an unstable atmosphere Tuesday afternoon.
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| Temperatures mid-day Tuesday |
Temperatures will be in the mid-70's to near 80 in some areas mid-day Tuesday. Notice the cold front to the northwest, this is the front responsible for our storm chances.
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| Super cell Composite Parameter |
We've included the supercell parameters model for this event to help portray the target area we've posted above. Supercell parameters are a basic representation regarding the ingredients needed for supercell development. This is NOT to scare anyone, rather just show everyone the atmosphere will be amplified Tuesday, which could lead to some stronger storms.
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| Simulated radar image for Tuesday afternoon (NAM 3KM) |
Storms should began to develop in the afternoon hours of Tuesday. We are confident in the idea of these storms being more linear in nature, forming into a squall line of thunderstorms. These storms will move southeast in correlation with the cold front.
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| Simulated radar image for Tuesday evening (NAM 3KM) |
By Tuesday evening the storms are still on-going, but have progressed southeast. Notice the models are suggesting the storms will continue to hold strength.
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| Simulated radar image for early Wednesday morning (NAM 3KM) |
Finally, the storms will exit the state as the cold front moves through the entire state. Notice the 32 degree in southern Missouri edging close to northern Arkansas. It could be fairly cold early Wednesday after the front has made its way through.
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Lastly, we've included our risk graphic for this event. The Storm Prediction Center has kept most of the eastern half of Arkansas in a "slight" risk area for Tuesday. Stronger storms are possible, and some could possibly be severe. The main threats included damaging winds, larger hail, and some isolated tornadoes. These tornadoes would likely be weaker, and form as smaller spin-up tornadoes along the frontal zone of the squall line. However, we must remain diligent and treat every storm with respect!
-AW Team
Model use accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/
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