Winter Weather Possible - More Severe Thunderstorms

Prepare yourself, this blog is a long one. We have a large amount of information to cover regarding the weather pattern for the next few days. As most of you know, here in Arkansas we know of no such thing as "normal" weather. We usually experience a roller coaster of patterns, and that phrase is best exemplified for this weekend. First of all, severe weather chances look possible again. After that, temperatures will cool off again leading to a chance of some winter weather. We have our doubts, but we can't ignore the data we are looking over.

• For the remainder of today (Wednesday) we will remain nice and dry, with cooler temperatures. 
• We will warm gradually Thursday, but remain fairly cool in some areas. We do have a chance of some showers Thursday, but it is not a wash out and no major amounts are expected by any means.
• Friday is the day things begin to get interesting. A warm front will lift northwards, elevating temperatures into the mid 70's (mostly the southern half of the state). Friday evening a cold front will begin to track south. This clash of air masses will spark thunderstorms Friday evening into the late night hours.
• EVERYONE will likely see rainfall as the cold front moves south. Regardless if you see any winter weather or severe storms, this is something we can guarantee. 
• Some of the storm development could hold a severe potential, mostly across the southern half of Arkansas (south of I-40).
• Once the cold front sweeps the state, and the storms have moved off, we will cool down substantially. Some of our model data has indicated temperatures dropping to as low as the mid 20's Saturday morning (northern Arkansas).
• With residual moisture still at hand, and widespread colder air (below freezing) we could experience some winter weather throughout Friday night into early Saturday morning. We will eventually warm back above freezing Saturday mid-day.

Temperatures Friday evening

There will be a drastic temperature contrast Friday evening for the entire state. Notice the sharp gradient along the cold front in northern Arkansas. However, the southern half of the state is still warm, with temperatures in the mid 70's across southern Arkansas. As the colder air moves south, thunderstorms will develop along the front. 

Southern Arkansas is our target area for storms Friday night

As mentioned above, temperatures will warm into the mid 70's Friday. Along with the temperature increase, low level moisture will rise into the mid 60's. This combination will help destabilize the atmosphere and prep the environment for thunderstorm development. Our target area is the southern half of Arkansas, where instability is the highest (CAPE values nearing 2,700 J/kg). 

Simulated radar image late Friday night (NAM 12-km)

Simulated radar (late Friday evening) places a large complex of storms, likely in a linear fashion along the front moving south. Due to the likelihood of these storms forming into a line it will aid in diminishing the tornado threat. However, larger hail and damaging straight line winds will be possible, especially along the frontal zone of the storms. 

Very cold temperatures Saturday morning (NAM 12-km)

So then we fast forward several hours, and we've arrived to early Saturday morning. The EURO, GFS, and NAM model all agree that we could experience well below freezing temperatures Saturday morning. However, the key will be where that line of freezing air stops. Notice the gradual decrease and increase of temperatures along and north of I-40. This temperature difference will be key in who sees any winter weather (if we see any at all).

Now for the grand finale, whats the story on the winter weather. To precursor all of the following information, we all know how difficult it is to forecast winter weather. This situation is no different, and things will change from now (Wednesday 9:53 AM) until late Friday. HOWEVER, models have been showing this chance for a few days, and continue to do so this morning. 

As the front settles in Friday night we will drop to at or below freezing in certain areas, mainly north of I-40. Where this freezing line occurs and sets up, and where the most residual moisture is available, will make all the difference in who sees any winter weather, and how much. This is NOT a big event and we don't expect any major accumulation if any with this event. 

With that being said, there could certainly be roadway issues early Saturday morning depending on how much wintry weather falls. We could experience all sorts of winter weather, freezing rain, light snow, or some sleet. The next question is just how far this freezing air will move south, and the honest answer is we don't know. Nobody knows this, we just have an idea, stemming from the model data we have at hand. This will be a fluid forecast and things will change, the winter weather possibilities could dissipate completely, so be prepared for that (snow lovers).

If you read this entire blog, thank you so much and we hope this cleared up any speculation for this weekend. We will have updates on our Facebook/Twitter leading up to the event itself. 

-AW Team

Model use accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/

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