Severe Storms and Snow!

Today will be the last full day of mild weather before some very chilly cold air intrudes. So, if you're not a fan of cold air, soak it in! Normally a large and powerful shot of strong cold air comes with a price here in Arkansas, usually in the form of severe thunderstorms. This weekend looks to hold that reputation, as a few thunderstorms are possible prior to our next cold front. This system is interesting, as some of us may see some light snowfall as the low pressure system exits to the east.

• Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 50's this afternoon. There could be a few low 60's across southern Arkansas as well. We will remain mostly cloudy and rain chances will become more persistent later in the day.
• As the cold front approaches from the northwest, some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms could initiate. While not every thunderstorm will be severe, there is a marginal potential for a few of them to strengthen to severe status. 
• There will likely be a large temperature difference across Arkansas early Saturday morning as the cold front is making it's way across our state. Don't be surprised if portions of northwest Arkansas dips into the 30's, while southeast Arkansas is holding steady in the low to mid 60's.
• Eventually the arctic air will engulf Arkansas, giving way to very chilly air. Sunday morning looks VERY cold, with temps likely in the 20's and maybe a few teens across northern Arkansas.
• There is a limited snowfall potential on the backside of this system as the low pressure exits. However, moisture will be limited and impacts look minimal (if any).

Let's look at a few models, the text below each graphic is pertaining to the respective graphic above the text itself. 

Friday Afternoon Temperatures 

Here is a look at temperatures for this afternoon. Notice we are fairly mild, as mentioned above. Mostly low to mid 50's with a few of us likely climbing into the 60's.

Early Saturday Morning

Fast forward to early Saturday morning, you can clearly see the cold front across eastern Oklahoma. Temperatures will begin tanking throughout the morning. Check out that temperature gradient, mid 60's across SE Arkansas with 30's in NW Arkansas!

Saturday Night

By Saturday night, the cold air is officially here. The entire state will likely be well into the 30's with below freezing conditions for numerous counties. Make sure you bundle up for church Sunday morning, as temperatures will only decrease into the morning hours.

We've included two simulated radar graphics above. Widespread rainfall will help limit the over instability potential for severe thunderstorm development. However, a few thunderstorms could strengthen to severe limits. The greatest potential will likely be across southern and central Arkansas, where instability is greatest.

By Saturday morning, as the cold air overlaps with what moisture is left, we could experience some flurries or light snowfall. Don't pay attention to the exact locations portrayed by this model, especially across SW Arkansas. We simply posted this to give you an idea of the scenario itself. As the low pressure system exits, the backside could cool enough to support some light winter mix/snow. The best chances for any accumulation would be across northern/northwest Arkansas in the highest elevations. Don't be surprised however if you see a few flurries on Saturday.

Don't give up on winter just yet, we still have plenty of time for a good snow! These sort of setups are not how we get our big snow events here in Arkansas. We need that cold arctic air already in place, with a solid wave of moisture for anything significant.

-AW