- The "action" will start late tonight into early Friday morning. We mention "action" with some sarcasm, as initially we only expect rainfall to move in from the west. Rain will gradually become more widespread throughout the day.
- There is some limited winter weather potential during the morning hours Friday across the northern half of the state. This should be most noticeable in the highest elevations.
- Friday evening a switchover from a cold rain to a winter mix will occur once again. Likely a mix of sleet/freezing rain. Snowfall will be limited, we'll explain the reason for this later.
- Rainfall will continue throughout the night Friday, into Saturday morning. There is a potential for a switchover to snowfall on Saturday morning (northern Arkansas). Although we expect this to be very limited.
- There could be some residual moisture left over once the main system exits to the east Saturday evening. While temperatures will struggle to dip below freezing, we won't rule out a few snow flakes Saturday night.
- Winter weather often steals the spotlight with any system. However, don't forget about all the rainfall we'll experience. Some areas could pick up an inch or more of throughout the weekend.
Let's look at some model data, remember all of the following text is pertaining to the model images posted above the text itself.
By tomorrow morning, some of you may be dealing with some pesky rainfall on your way to work. We don't expect many issues for most of the state, as temperatures at the surface will likely support a cold rain. However, some of northern Arkansas (high elevations) could experience some light freezing rain/sleet. Isolated slick spots can't be ruled out, but we aren't expecting significant impacts.
Fast forward to Friday evening, it's still raining out there. Also, notice the pinks colors on this simulated radar image. This represents frozen precipitation likely freezing rain or sleet pellets. Notice the coverage is more evident than the morning timeframe. There could be slick spots and some roadway issues late Friday night.
By early Saturday morning, you guessed it, still raining. Some of the rains showers could be moderate, adding to already saturated grounds. Notice across extreme northern Arkansas, snowfall is attempting to mix with the rain. Looking over some of our data, the mid-levels aloft will be gradually warmer than the temperatures at the surface. This is NOT good support for snowfall. While some flakes could fly, we don't expect anything significant.
Some of you have asked, why do we expect more of a freezing rain/sleet mixture rather than snowfall? Notice in the graphic above, looking at around 850mb (around 5,000 feet above), the flow is from the SW. This flow will aid in warming aloft, increasing the temperature above us. Remember, the atmosphere has a vertical structure, there is differences in wind flow and temperatures. This warming can drastically alter the precipitation we experience here at the surface! For snowfall, we need to lose the warm nose directly above the surface.
Lastly, let's take a look at the freezing rain potential. The NAM (3km) is pretty aggressive with ice totals, but we are on board with it. The GFS is also similar in placement, but a little less adamant about the totals. A safe bet would be a light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces, trees, and exposed items outside. It doesn't take much for ice to cause issues on the roadways, so be careful this weekend.
Bottom line, ice is a bigger concern for us. Snowfall chances are there, but VERY limited and confined to our northern most border. A solid rain event for the rest of the state is in store. If you live within the northern tier of our state, your chances are higher. If you live in elevations above 1,200 feet, your chances are even higher.
Thanks for reading!
-AW
