- Warm air will nudge northward today, while the northern half of Arkansas will remain in the mid 40's and low 50's, some of southern Arkansas could reach the 60's. Don't get used to it, the warmer air will soon vanish.
- The mentioned cold front will make it's entry late tonight into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Some of northwest Arkansas could experience mid to low 20's early Wednesday. Stronger winds will accompany the front, making it VERY chilly Wednesday morning.
- Once the cold front has swept through Arkansas, it will keep high temperatures very chilly throughout the day on Wednesday.
- Rainfall is very likely ahead of the front, as the cold/warm air collision occurs. As this cold front progresses southeast, some of the colder air could interact with the residual moisture. This could lead to some **LIGHT** winter mix.
- This is a tough forecast, as we are not 100% sure on the magnitude of the cold air, or how far southeast this interaction could occur. Nonetheless, accumulations should be minimal and travel impacts would be isolated if any whatsoever.
- As always, with any winter weather forecast, this is subject to change. You should be well seasoned to this aspect, as our last winter weather event took us all for a loop!
Let's take a look at a few models. As always, the text below each model graphic pertains to the respective graphic posted above it.
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| Tuesday Afternoon Tempertatures |
Here is a look at temperatures this afternoon (Tuesday). Notice we are fairly mild, with even some low 60's along the warm air in southern Arkansas.
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| Late Tuesday Night Temperatures |
By late Tuesday, this strong cold front will make it's presence known. We've edited the graphic above, giving you a simple representation of this front. Notice the warm air prior to the front, with the cold conditions forcing it's way southeast. This interaction will induce a strong aspect of lift, giving way to rainfall later today.
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| Wednesday mid-day Temperatures |
Fast forward to mid-day Wednesday, the cold front is now approaching the southeastern regions of the United States and we are COLD here in Arkansas. Afternoon temperatures could dip into the 20's across far northern Arkansas.
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| Winter mix late Tuesday/early Wednesday |
So what about this chat about winter weather? Notice the GFS model perception for late Tuesday/early Wednesday. As we mentioned earlier widespread rain looks likely for Tuesday evening, as suggested here. As the cold air and moisture interact, a light winter mix could occur. This model valid for 06Z is suggesting this mix could be occurring across western Arkansas.
Most high elevations should be below freezing (NWA), which could lead to a better chance for this mentioned winter mix. While areas like the River Valley (Fort Smith for example) could see more rain than anything, as temperatures may struggle to dip below freezing prior to the moisture exiting.
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| Wednesday Early Morning |
By early Wednesday morning, this winter mix could still be on-going across portions of northern, central and perhaps some of southwest Arkansas. Here is the issue, cold air will soon begin to retreat as the moisture progresses southeast. The GFS may be a little too aggressive with this solution, don't be surprised if you live in the areas just mentioned and you only see a cold rain. Northern Arkansas does have a higher elevation aspect, which could aid in keeping sufficient colder air in place longer.
Lastly, we leave you with our own thoughts for this system. These sort of graphics are always tough, as winter weather forecasting can be so fluid with each data run. However, we feel this range is practical. The pink shaded region is the area we suspect has the highest chances to see any sort of winter mix. Portions of southeast Arkansas (non-shaded) have the lowest chances, likely only seeing that dreaded cold rain.
With this being said, if you live in southeast Arkansas don't be surprised if you see a few flakes or some light sleet Wednesday morning during your commute. The cold air combination with what moisture is left will be sporadic with the cold air forcing and elevation changes. As we mentioned earlier, this doesn't appear to be a huge widespread winter weather event. However, be mindful of roadway conditions early Wednesday in case they have become slick. Accumulations and travel issues should be VERY limited if any.
Thanks for reading.
-AW
