Spring Turns Cold and Maybe a Little Snow?

Rain and thunderstorms are currently on-going (3-27-18 9:39 PM). These showers and storms aren't leaving anytime soon either, as they will stick around for a few more days. The current focal point is the risk of flash flooding and stronger storms. However, as we progress through the week and into early April our focus will certainly change. Colder air looks more and more promising for the early stages of April. Of course, this raises the question of winter precipitation and just how cold it will be.

• Once the rain and storms finally make their exit, we will have somewhat of a break moving into the late month. There will be more rain chances for early April, but this will not be as prolific. 
• The biggest story right now is the risks for flash flooding, rainfall has just began and will continue for the next couple of days. We spoke of this in our previous blog, and won't cover it much in this one.
• The next pattern shift looks to be a cold one, in fact early April looks fairly chilly. Some of our model data has even suggested temperatures dipping into the 20's for low temperatures. Yes, you read that right - 20's.
• The magic question: "Will there be any snow?" Some model data has actually suggested snowfall for early April. However, this is still something to take very lightly. We'll watch this closely. 
• As for Easter Sunday, there is a bit of data disagreement on temperatures. The more trustworthy EURO is keeping temperatures in the 30's and 40's during the day. While the GFS is a touch warmer.

It still appears that portions of southern Arkansas will see the worst of the flooding chances for this rainfall event. We have posted the (GFS) total precipitation model above through the end of the month, be aware these totals may be a little far fetched. However, we feel this is fairly accurate on placement. 

Easter Sunday Temperatures (evening)

As far as temperatures go, it appears Easter Sunday could be fairly cold. Especially in northern Arkansas as temperatures could dip into the 30's with ease. There is some model disagreement regarding this, as the GFS keeps us a little warmer. Regardless, it will be cooler than normal for Easter. 

Easter Winter Precipitation - Maybe?

To precursor this graphic, we are NOT stating it will snow, sleet, etc. on Easter Sunday. However, we felt it was worth mentioning the idea of some sort of freezing precipitation on Easter Sunday into the late evening hours. Model data has supported this idea, and has been somewhat consistent regarding it, especially for northern Arkansas. This is a little far fetched obviously, so it is something we will take into consideration and watch closely. Locations, timing, and impacts (if any) is something we can not discuss or answer at this time.

It is not common to see snowfall in April and May in Arkansas. However, it is not impossible and we have seen it occur. Who else remembers the snowfall of May 2013? Five inches of snowfall was recorded in Decatur in northwest Arkansas, while much lighter amounts (trace) were recorded as far south as Montgomery County. Check out the picture posted below, which was taken during the snowfall event of May 2013. Snow lovers, have faith! 

Photograph taken during May 2013 snowfall event

We hope you enjoyed this blog, and learned something new about the weather we experience! We will have updates soon regarding our future weather. Please, remember to like and share as this helps our page grow even more. Thank you for reading and have a fantastic day!

-AW Team 

Model use accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/

  

Flooding Likely - More Severe Weather?

By this time, we're sure most of you are sick of the rainfall we've experienced so far for early 2018. We have bad news, it looks like even more rain is in store for the upcoming week. Due to a pesky area of low pressure to our west, and ample southwest flow, moisture will have no issue becoming apparent. This will lead to numerous rain chances through most of the week likely leading to flooding issues. As well as flooding concerns, we need to watch a few periods that could hold severe weather chances. We aren't expecting an outbreak, but every storm during the Spring season needs watching.

• Models are suggesting more organized rain showers could develop on Sunday. This will be only the beginning for numerous chances for rain. This should last well into the week, before finally seeing some sort of relief by Friday.
• Most of the model data is in fair agreement that rainfall totals could exceed 3-4 inches in certain areas through the proximity of the week. The GFS has even suggested rain totals exceeding 5 inches across southern Arkansas. 
• It appears that the Tuesday - Thursday time frame will hold the best chances for heavier rainfall.
• As of right now (3-24-18 7:28 AM) the best chances for any severe weather looks to be most prevalent on Monday afternoon/evening. This chance exists mostly across western Arkansas.
• In reference to the severe weather threat, the main threats look to be larger hail and damaging winds. 
• Southern Arkansas looks to hold the best chances for flash flooding issues, however other areas of the state could certainly see their fair share depending on where the heaviest bands of rain occur. 
• Looking a few days ahead, there could also be a severe weather threat for southern Arkansas on Tuesday of next week. Due to low level moisture and warming afternoon temperatures instability could be present. This could support some stronger storms - possibly severe.

GFS rainfall totals through late week

Looking ahead to late next week, the GFS model has really been aggressive with rainfall totals. This is to be expected from the GFS, as it does have a history of over-doing precipitation amounts. Regardless, heavy rain is likely and this could be possible. Notice the heavier rainfall totals across southern Arkansas (5-6 inches).

Storm Prediction Center outlook (Monday)

As for Monday afternoon/evening, we could have some stronger storms develop a long with the rain showers present. Some of the storms that do evolve could also be severe, however it does appear most severe development (if any) will remain to our west in portions of Oklahoma and Texas. As we previously stated the main threats appear to be larger hail and damaging winds; tornado threat does look low.

Day-4 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center

Looking even further ahead, the SPC has outlined a 15% outlook area that does included portions of southwest Arkansas. Due to ample low level moisture and warming afternoon temperatures, some stronger storms could evolve due to instability increase. This would likely be a more linear complex of storms and slow moving. We're still several days away, so the details will need to be fine tuned, and we will monitor this closely. 

With the potential for flash flooding in the upcoming week, we want to remind you all of the dangers that it holds. Flash flooding is a lesser known killer in relation to dangerous weather. Flooding and flash flooding combined are the leading cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. Please, turn around - don't drown. Be mindful of this as we could certainly see our fair share of flooded roadways late this week! 

-AW Team

Model use accredited to: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ - http://models.weatherbell.com/

Spring Severe Season 101 - Lightning

With the Severe Spring Season quickly approaching, we know some may wonder further into the realm of severe weather. We've all sat down and watched our local news station, waiting to hear our town to be called for the next warning or watch. But have you ever wondered further into the wild nature of severe weather? Severe weather can be quite complex, one small change can create a large scale difference in a single storm. Over the next few weeks, we will dive into some of the aspects of severe weather and how it works. This week we will be covering lightning - a common weather aspect we experience here in Arkansas.

As we go about our day, we occasionally see clouds darkening in the distance, we immediately think of rain headed in our direction. However, suddenly you see a quick flash of light ahead, a quick and sharp strike of a lightning bolt striking the ground. It is an all too familiar phenomena we have all experienced throughout our life. Lightning is a beautiful yet deadly and dangerous interaction with thunderstorms.

Lightning is one of the oldest observed phenomena on earth. However, it is a aspect of thunderstorms that are not very well understood. While lightning is simply a large spark of static electricity, scientists do not have a full understanding on how it works, or how it interacts with solar flares impacting the upper atmosphere or the earth's electromagnetic field. At any given moment, there can be as many as 2,000 thunderstorms occurring across the globe. This translates to more than 14.5 million storms each year.

How Is Lightning Created?

The certain conditions needed for lightning is something that scientist and researchers know and understand. However, exactly what causes the lightning is up for debate. Theories have found that separations of electric charges and generations of electric fields within a thunderstorm is what causes the lightning. There has also been correlation's found that ice, hail, and frozen water droplets are needed for lightning development. 

Electric field within a thunderstorm

In the world of electricity, opposites attract and insulators inhibit. As positive and negative charges begin to separate within the cloud, an electric field is created between the top and base. Further separation of these charges into pools of positive and negative regions result in a strengthening of the electric field.

The atmosphere is a very good insulator that inhibits electric flow, so a vast amount of charge has to build before lightning can occur. When that charge is reached, the strength of the electric field can overcome the atmosphere's insulating properties, thus lightning results.

The electric field within the storm is not the only one that develops. Below the negatively charged storm base, positive charge begins to pool within the surface of the earth (notice the image on the left).

This positive charge will shadow the storm wherever it goes, and is responsible for the all too familiar cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. However, the electric field within the storm is much stronger than the one between the storm and the earth's surface, this is why most lightning actual occurs inside the storm itself.

Sounds of Thunder 

There is a common phrase within weather terms: "When the thunder roars, go in-doors!" This is a very wise statement, as thunder has a direct correlation with lightning.

Thunder is the shock wave resulting from the extreme heat generated by lightning. Lightning can be as hot as 54,000°F, a temperature that is FIVE TIMES hotter than the surface of the sun! When lightning occurs, it heats the air surrounding itself to that same incredible temperature in a fraction of a second.

Like all gases, when air molecules are heated, they expand. The faster they are heated up, the faster the rate of expansion. However, when air is heated to 54,000°F in a fraction of a second, a phenomenon known as "explosive expansion" occurs. This is where air expands so rapidly that it compresses the air in front of it, forming a shock wave similar to a sonic boom. Exploding fireworks produce a similar result.

Common Lightning Myths

There has been numerous myths created in reference to the nature of lightning. Just to clear the air, we figured in conclusion to this blog we would state a few. Some of the following are just a few of the common myths we've all heard before. 

"We don't have to worry about that lightning, it's just heat lightning."

Heat lightning is one of the most misused weather terms during the summer season. Many people actually think that heat lightning is produced by hot and humid conditions. This is absolutely false, and there is no such thing as "heat lightning". The flashes of light that you are actually seeing is lightning, but the lightning is from a distant thunderstorm far enough from you where you cannot hear the thunder. 

However, if you do witness lightning far enough away where you do not hear thunder, this does mean you can safely view it. This is due to the lightning being so far away!

"Don't worry, lightning never strikes the same place twice."

Lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially if it's a tall, sharp, or isolated object. The Empire State Building is hit an average of 23 times a year. Also, if you've ever been on a boat in the ocean, or on a beach at night, you'll notice off-shore drilling rigs being struck several times. 

"If you are in a house, you are 100% safe from lightning."

A house is a safe place to be during a thunderstorm as long as you avoid anything that conducts electricity. This means staying off corded phones, electrical appliances, wires, TV cables, computers, plumbing, metal doors and windows. Windows are hazardous for two reasons: wind generated during a thunderstorm can blow objects into the window, breaking it and causing glass to shatter and second, in older homes, in rare instances, lightning can come in cracks in the sides of windows.

"It's not raining outside, and I see no clouds overhead, I'm safe from lightning even though I can hear thunder."

Lightning often strikes more than three miles from the center of the thunderstorm, far outside the rain or thunderstorm cloud. “Bolts from the blue” can strike 10-15 miles from the thunderstorm.

We hope you've enjoyed this blog, and have learned some valuable information regarding lightning! Always remember, if you hear thunder roar - go indoors!

-AW Team 

Sources and imaged credits: https://www.weather.gov/ - 

Wild Weekend of Weather - Severe Storms Likely

Good evening everyone, sorry for such a delayed blog post, things have been hectic in the personal lives (moving houses). It appears this weekend could turn active in regards to severe weather chances. We are eyeing two chances of severe weather, Friday and Sunday. Sunday currently seems to be the more prolific setup for severe weather, but Friday must be watched closely as well.

• Friday will bring us our first chances for any strong thunderstorms. We could start the day off with some isolated showers early Friday. As we move into the afternoon/evening hours portions of southern and southeast Arkansas will be our hot-spot for any severe chances. 
• Saturday should be mostly dry, but this wont last long as Sunday yields yet another opportunity for rainfall and thunderstorms. 
• We aren't going to dive into too much detail regarding Sunday, as we would like to analyze more model data before spouting details. 
• In reference to the storm chances tomorrow (Friday) the main threats appear to be isolated areas of larger hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes (low threat).

Southern, and southeast, Arkansas appears to have the best chances for severe development.

Tomorrow during the mid-day hours ample moisture (mid-60 dew points) and temperatures climbing into the mid 70's will set the stage for storm development. This setup looks to favor mostly southern and southeast Arkansas where the best storm relative convection will occur. However, portions of eastern and possibly even northeast Arkansas could see some stronger storms. The overall severe threat for this event is not prolific, but must be watched accordingly. 

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas across southern and eastern Arkansas in a "slight" risk area. We have put forth a graphic posted above to help better explain this outlook. Notice the risk levels are not extremely high, but remember last week two citizens in northeast Texas were killed in a "Marginal" risk area, which is lower than a "slight" risk. We must remain diligent and pay close eye on the weather. 

Models depicting on-going showers and storms tomorrow evening.

Models are suggesting we could see isolated areas of thunderstorms and rainfall throughout the day tomorrow (Friday). However, our main time frame to watch for severe storm chances will occur in the evening hours. Models have struggled with depicting this setup, as seen in the above posted model (NAM 3-KM). Notice the very isolated areas of showers across southern and southeast Arkansas, but limited thunderstorm development. We don't necessarily buy this, as we believe some discreet thunderstorms, some possibly stronger, could develop. This should not be a widespread or large complex of storms, rather a few isolated strong cells. These discreet cells could hold a higher tornado threat, so it must be watched closely. 

Looking ahead, we could also see some severe weather late Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday. With a stalling warm front, and some ample instability present, there could be some stronger storms develop yet again across southern and possibly west central Arkansas. We don't really want to dive into details regarding this as there is still plenty of data to be viewed. Regardless, the Storm Prediction Center has already taken note of this and included a 15% risk area for the day-4 outlook. We'll have more on this as we progress through the weekend. 

-AW Team

Model use accredited: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ - http://models.weatherbell.com/

Spring Severe Season 101 - Hail

With the Severe Spring Season quickly approaching, we know some may wonder further into the realm of severe weather. We've all sat down and watched our local news station, waiting to hear our town to be called for the next warning or watch. But have you ever wondered further into the wild nature of severe weather? Severe weather can be quite complex, one small change can create a large scale difference in a single storm. Over the next few weeks, we will dive into some of the aspects of severe weather and how it works. This week we will be covering hail  - a weather phenomenon we've all likely experienced.

This past week, Arkansas experienced a very destructive hail storm that likely caused millions of dollars in damages. Portions of west central, and central, Arkansas were the most effected. Some areas saw hail sizes larger than baseball size! This is not common, in fact most hail stones remain at pea or marble size. We received several messages regarding the hail storm after the fact, with many questions as to "why it occurred, where hail even comes from, and how did it get this big?".

Extremely large hail stones that fell in White Hall on March 10th, 2018.

Hail is defined as pellets of frozen rain that fall in showers from cumulonimbus clouds. This may sound like a rather boring, or bleak phenomenon, but we assure it is not! Hail is precipitation that is formed when updrafts in thunderstorms carry raindrops vertically into very cold portions of the atmosphere. Hail can damage aircraft, homes, cars, and can be deadly to livestock and people.  Hailstones grow by collision with super-cooled water droplets. Super-cooled droplets are liquid drops surrounded by air that is below freezing, this is a common occurrence in thunderstorms.

Strong updrafts create a rain-free base in super cellular thunderstorms. This rain free base is referred as a WER, which stands for "weak echo region". The term (WER) stems due to the presence of a rain free region of a thunderstorm which is bounded on one side, and above by very intense precipitation indicted by a strong echo on radar.

The idealized path of hail within cloud.

This rain-free region is produced by the updraft and is what suspends rain and hail aloft producing the strong radar echo. The hailstone is carried aloft by the updraft and begins to grow in size as it collides with other super-cooled rain droplets and other small pieces of hail. During this process, some hail stones can actually be blown out of the updraft itself, thus falling to the earths surface. 

If the updraft is stronger, it can actually move the hailstone back into the cloud where it once again collides with cooled droplets and other small hail stones. This process may be repeated several times, depending on the strength and longevity of a storm. However, hail stones will eventually no longer be supported by the updraft and fall to the earth. The LARGER the updraft, the larger sizes of hail can be expected. 

Super cellular thunderstorms can grow to heights over 40,000 feet tall. As you climb in latitude, the atmospheres temperature will decrease. This is the reason for the strong and destructive hail as it reaches very high latitudes, and then falls to the earth. 

Believe it or not, there is a proper way to size and measure hail stones. As we stated earlier, we experienced hail stones larger than baseball size over the last week! We've included a graphic (posted above) to help relate this measurement theory. Although softball size hail is very rare, it has occurred before, even in Arkansas. The largest hailstone ever recorded fell during a severe thunderstorm that struck Vivian, South Dakota on July 23, 2010. The hailstone measured 8.0” in diameter, 18 ½” in circumference, and weighed in at 1.9375 pounds.

We hope you enjoyed this edition of "Spring Severe Season 101", this is our second entry and only the beginning! Share this with your friends, and let's spread the awareness regarding the weather we experience! 

References: https://www.weather.gov/ - https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/worlds-largest-hailstones.html

Saturday Storms - More Snow?

Hello everyone, hopefully you all had a fantastic week and have a fun weekend planned! We do have a few things to go over regarding this weekend. It does appear we may have a chance for a few isolated strong to severe storms tomorrow (Saturday 3-10-18). Wouldn't you know it, there is also a slight chance for some snowfall early Momday! We will explain this all in detail below.

• Temperatures will warm tomorrow due to a rising warm front from our south. We do not expect a drastic temperature increase, but we could see some upper 60's across western and southern Arkansas. 
• Due to this warm front, there is a chance for some stronger thunderstorms. This chance exists mainly across southern Arkansas, with maybe an isolated strong storm across southwest and western Arkansas. 
• There is two chances for storms tomorrow, one chance exists in the morning hours and the other the evening hours. The evening period of storms will hold the best chances for any stronger storm development.
• Temperatures will begin to cool off after Saturday due to a cold front. Once again, we don't expect a drastic temperature difference but it will be cooler Monday morning especially across northern Arkansas. 
• A few of our models are suggesting we could see some light snowfall Monday morning. This would likely only be across northern Arkansas, especially in higher elevations.
• In reference to the storms chances tomorrow, we are not sold on a severe weather event. It actually appears most of the storms could remain under severe limits. The models have had a really hard time deciphering what exactly will happen. 

As the warm front rises northward tomorrow it will increase temperatures into the 60's for much of southern and western Arkansas. This will help aid in some instability for storm development, but as we stated before it does not appear significant. 

There is two chances for storms tomorrow, the morning period of storms and the afternoon/evening period. The morning period, as shown here in this NAM 3km simulated radar image, should remain under severe limits. 

As we progress into the afternoon/evening hours, some of the thunderstorm development could be stronger. Instability and moisture appears somewhat limited, which could help decrease severe chances. Regardless, we must watch a few of the cells that could development tomorrow afternoon. The main threats appear to be larger hail, and damaging winds. There is a tornado threat, but it is very low. 

Snow could be possible early Monday

Once all the storms have moved out of the state, and temperatures continue to cool off, some of us could see some light snow flurries Monday morning. This chance should only exist across northern Arkansas with temperatures right at or just above freezing. This is by no means a big event, and should not cause any impacts. Don't get your heart set either, some models agree with the chance for snow while others have disputed it.

Portions of Louisiana and Mississippi have better chances for more structured severe storm development. You can see this in the rainfall amounts for the next 72 hours, notice most of the rain really dodges us to the south and east. This is by no means a wash out, but we will get some rainfall out of it! We look to dry out this week, with more rain possible, and maybe some stronger storms again next weekend.

-AW Team 

Models used accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/

Spring Severe Season 101 - Tornado Alley

With the Severe Spring Season quickly approaching, we know some may wonder further into the realm of severe weather. We've all sat down and watched our local news station, waiting to hear our town to be called for the next warning or watch. But have you ever wondered further into the wild nature of severe weather? Severe weather can be quite complex, one small change can create a large scale difference in a single storm. Over the next few weeks, we will dive into some of the aspects of severe weather and how it works. This week we will be covering Tornado Alley - a phrase we have all heard throughout our lives.

To start, one may ask: "Where is Tornado Alley, and do I actually live in this area?"

This is a question that could be answered or portrayed a few different ways. Many outlined areas, or small differences can be displayed in different maps, outlooks, etc. However, there are actually two different Tornado Alley's in the field of weather study. The term "Tornado Alley" was first used in 1952 by U.S. Air Force meteorologists Major Ernest J. Fawbush, and Captain Robert C. Miller. The phrase was coined as the title of a research project to study severe weather in parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

Traditional Tornado Alley is often viewed as the central plains of the United States. Far eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado, portions of Minnesota, portions of Iowa, western Missouri, and a large chunk of Texas is also included. Yes, tornadoes can and do occur outside of Tornado Alley. However, tornado alley is defined as: "an area of the Great Plains centered through Kansas and Oklahoma and including parts of the surrounding states, where tornadoes are FREQUENT".

You didn't think we forgot about Arkansas did you? Remember, we stated there are two areas viewed as Tornado Alley. Dixie Alley is a large area circled throughout the southeast portion of the United States. Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, and small portions of North Carolina and Kentucky are included.

One could argue that these defined areas are rather vague. Tornadoes, some deadly, occur in different parts of the United States. However, over history the areas in the two Tornado Alley's have been known to frequent large, destructive, and even deadly tornadoes.

 
When you view a map such as this highlighted map showing the history of tornado watches in the years spanning from 1993-2012, it brings to life the true nature of living in Tornado Alley. Notice the brighter shades of pink in the areas of Dixie Alley, and the southern portions of Traditional Tornado Alley.

The reasoning behind these areas being exposed to an elevated tornado threat involves several key components.

One major key component involves the Gulf of Mexico, the gulf allows warm moist air masses to rise north. With these warmer humid air masses, the jet stream aloft is set on a collision course with this air mass. Along with the jet stream, cooler air from the northern continental US and drier air from the desert southwest aids in storm development.

The United States averages a staggering 1,200 tornadoes per year, more than any other country by far. Below is a numerical list portraying the states with the highest average number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles or 26,000 km. This data has been accounted for ranging from the years of 1991-2010 (courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center). Notice the state of Florida is #1, this stems from tropical weather including stronger Hurricanes. In reference to that statistic, that will be explained in a further blog.

1. Florida: 12.2
2. Kansas: 11.7
3. Maryland: 9.9
4. Illinois: 9.7
5. Mississippi: 9.2
6. Iowa: 9.1
7. Oklahoma: 9
8. South Carolina: 9
9. Alabama: 8.6
10. Louisiana: 8.5
11. Arkansas: 7.5
12. Nebraska: 7.4
13. Missouri: 6.5
14. North Carolina: 6.4
15. Tennessee: 6.2
16. Indiana: 6.1
17. Texas: 5.9

We hope you enjoyed this blog, and have learned something new today! We will have a blog posted next week regarding another aspect of severe weather.

-AW Team

Afternoon Thunderstorms

As we type this blog the state is mostly quiet for now. There are a few isolated areas of thunderstorms currently on-going, these are NOT severe. This afternoon (3-5-18) we could see a few thunderstorms (possibly stronger) form along a weak cold front as it moves from the west. This would mainly be across portions of southern Arkansas. We do not expect a wide outbreak of severe weather, rather just a marginal risk of severe weather with a few stronger cells.

Later this afternoon a weak cold front will progress east. The temperature swing will not be drastic, but the cooler more dry air will help initiate thunderstorms along the warmer humid air in southern Arkansas.

CAPE values (instability - fuel for thunderstorms) are not off the chart by any means, but there is enough to support some thunderstorm development. Notice the higher values across southern Arkansas near the Louisiana border.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed a small sliver of southern Arkansas into a "Marginal Risk" area for this afternoon. We have created a graphic, and posted it above to help better paint the picture. The area highlighted in light green is the focus area for storm development this afternoon, remember this a relatively weak system and we are NOT expecting anything substantial. However, the risk is not zero, so it cannot be ignored.

HRRR model data suggesting thunderstorms storms tracking east along the cold front

High resolution model data is suggesting storms could develop ahead of the front this afternoon and last into the evening hours. Later tonight, after 8 PM or so the front will have made it's way through thus diminishing storm and rain chances.

Hopefully you enjoyed this quick blog, if you have any questions feel free to comment or send us a message!

-AW Team

Models used accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/

More Rainfall Chances - Some Minor Relief

As this blog is being produced, rainfall is STILL on-going for parts of southern and eastern Arkansas. Heavy rainfall has ravaged our state for several days now, with only minor breaks in between. As much as we wish we could type this blog and state there is no more rain chances soon, we cannot do that. Luckily, we will get a break in between our next rain chance. For now, it does not appear we will experience any severe weather with our next system.

March 1st is also the beginning of meteorological Spring, temperatures look to remain stagnant in the 50's to 60's throughout the next several days with night time lows mostly remaining in the mid 30's. In the short term, there is no signs of any crazy cold weather. However, long range anomalies are suggesting some colder air could arrive within the next 10 days or so. This is long range, so it must be taken lightly at this time.

 
When the rain finally exits the state today, we will begin to see some relief. An area of high pressure will eventually settle in over the mid-south, this will lead to limited if any cloud cover and DRY weather.

Our next rain chances look to arrive early next week, possibly on Sunday. Low pressure over the Rocky Mountains will make a track east, with moisture being drug downstream. This will usher moisture into areas across the south. As a result of the moisture more rainfall will be possible, some heavier rainfall is possible. Model agreement is solid at the moment with 2-3 inches possible from this system. Heavier amounts currently look to be placed across central and eastern Arkansas.

Looking over temperatures for the next several days it appears we will remain fairly mild. Daytime highs will remain stagnant in the 50's, with some days climbing into the 60's. Night time lows will remain in the 30's, which is normal for this time of year. Notice Monday's low temperature struggles to climb below 50, this is due to the cloud cover associated with the low pressure system that will cause rain chances.

Lastly, we wanted to take a look at the previous 14-days of rainfall accumulation. Major flooding issues have occurred due to copious amounts of rain we have received. Notice areas across central Arkansas have been slammed with rainfall. In the month of February the town of Mena (Polk County) led the way with rainfall amounts, as they saw 18 inches of rainfall!

-AW Team


Models accredited to:  http://models.weatherbell.com/ - http://www.pivotalweather.com/