- Friday will bring us our first chances for any strong thunderstorms. We could start the day off with some isolated showers early Friday. As we move into the afternoon/evening hours portions of southern and southeast Arkansas will be our hot-spot for any severe chances.
- Saturday should be mostly dry, but this wont last long as Sunday yields yet another opportunity for rainfall and thunderstorms.
- We aren't going to dive into too much detail regarding Sunday, as we would like to analyze more model data before spouting details.
- In reference to the storm chances tomorrow (Friday) the main threats appear to be isolated areas of larger hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes (low threat).
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| Southern, and southeast, Arkansas appears to have the best chances for severe development. |
Tomorrow during the mid-day hours ample moisture (mid-60 dew points) and temperatures climbing into the mid 70's will set the stage for storm development. This setup looks to favor mostly southern and southeast Arkansas where the best storm relative convection will occur. However, portions of eastern and possibly even northeast Arkansas could see some stronger storms. The overall severe threat for this event is not prolific, but must be watched accordingly.
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas across southern and eastern Arkansas in a "slight" risk area. We have put forth a graphic posted above to help better explain this outlook. Notice the risk levels are not extremely high, but remember last week two citizens in northeast Texas were killed in a "Marginal" risk area, which is lower than a "slight" risk. We must remain diligent and pay close eye on the weather.
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| Models depicting on-going showers and storms tomorrow evening. |
Models are suggesting we could see isolated areas of thunderstorms and rainfall throughout the day tomorrow (Friday). However, our main time frame to watch for severe storm chances will occur in the evening hours. Models have struggled with depicting this setup, as seen in the above posted model (NAM 3-KM). Notice the very isolated areas of showers across southern and southeast Arkansas, but limited thunderstorm development. We don't necessarily buy this, as we believe some discreet thunderstorms, some possibly stronger, could develop. This should not be a widespread or large complex of storms, rather a few isolated strong cells. These discreet cells could hold a higher tornado threat, so it must be watched closely.
Looking ahead, we could also see some severe weather late Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday. With a stalling warm front, and some ample instability present, there could be some stronger storms develop yet again across southern and possibly west central Arkansas. We don't really want to dive into details regarding this as there is still plenty of data to be viewed. Regardless, the Storm Prediction Center has already taken note of this and included a 15% risk area for the day-4 outlook. We'll have more on this as we progress through the weekend.
-AW Team
Model use accredited: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ - http://models.weatherbell.com/
