- Models are suggesting more organized rain showers could develop on Sunday. This will be only the beginning for numerous chances for rain. This should last well into the week, before finally seeing some sort of relief by Friday.
- Most of the model data is in fair agreement that rainfall totals could exceed 3-4 inches in certain areas through the proximity of the week. The GFS has even suggested rain totals exceeding 5 inches across southern Arkansas.
- It appears that the Tuesday - Thursday time frame will hold the best chances for heavier rainfall.
- As of right now (3-24-18 7:28 AM) the best chances for any severe weather looks to be most prevalent on Monday afternoon/evening. This chance exists mostly across western Arkansas.
- In reference to the severe weather threat, the main threats look to be larger hail and damaging winds.
- Southern Arkansas looks to hold the best chances for flash flooding issues, however other areas of the state could certainly see their fair share depending on where the heaviest bands of rain occur.
- Looking a few days ahead, there could also be a severe weather threat for southern Arkansas on Tuesday of next week. Due to low level moisture and warming afternoon temperatures instability could be present. This could support some stronger storms - possibly severe.
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| GFS rainfall totals through late week |
Looking ahead to late next week, the GFS model has really been aggressive with rainfall totals. This is to be expected from the GFS, as it does have a history of over-doing precipitation amounts. Regardless, heavy rain is likely and this could be possible. Notice the heavier rainfall totals across southern Arkansas (5-6 inches).
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| Storm Prediction Center outlook (Monday) |
As for Monday afternoon/evening, we could have some stronger storms develop a long with the rain showers present. Some of the storms that do evolve could also be severe, however it does appear most severe development (if any) will remain to our west in portions of Oklahoma and Texas. As we previously stated the main threats appear to be larger hail and damaging winds; tornado threat does look low.
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| Day-4 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center |
Looking even further ahead, the SPC has outlined a 15% outlook area that does included portions of southwest Arkansas. Due to ample low level moisture and warming afternoon temperatures, some stronger storms could evolve due to instability increase. This would likely be a more linear complex of storms and slow moving. We're still several days away, so the details will need to be fine tuned, and we will monitor this closely.
With the potential for flash flooding in the upcoming week, we want to remind you all of the dangers that it holds. Flash flooding is a lesser known killer in relation to dangerous weather. Flooding and flash flooding combined are the leading cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. Please, turn around - don't drown. Be mindful of this as we could certainly see our fair share of flooded roadways late this week!
-AW Team
Model use accredited to: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ - http://models.weatherbell.com/
