- Temperatures will warm tomorrow due to a rising warm front from our south. We do not expect a drastic temperature increase, but we could see some upper 60's across western and southern Arkansas.
- Due to this warm front, there is a chance for some stronger thunderstorms. This chance exists mainly across southern Arkansas, with maybe an isolated strong storm across southwest and western Arkansas.
- There is two chances for storms tomorrow, one chance exists in the morning hours and the other the evening hours. The evening period of storms will hold the best chances for any stronger storm development.
- Temperatures will begin to cool off after Saturday due to a cold front. Once again, we don't expect a drastic temperature difference but it will be cooler Monday morning especially across northern Arkansas.
- A few of our models are suggesting we could see some light snowfall Monday morning. This would likely only be across northern Arkansas, especially in higher elevations.
- In reference to the storms chances tomorrow, we are not sold on a severe weather event. It actually appears most of the storms could remain under severe limits. The models have had a really hard time deciphering what exactly will happen.
As the warm front rises northward tomorrow it will increase temperatures into the 60's for much of southern and western Arkansas. This will help aid in some instability for storm development, but as we stated before it does not appear significant.
There is two chances for storms tomorrow, the morning period of storms and the afternoon/evening period. The morning period, as shown here in this NAM 3km simulated radar image, should remain under severe limits.
As we progress into the afternoon/evening hours, some of the thunderstorm development could be stronger. Instability and moisture appears somewhat limited, which could help decrease severe chances. Regardless, we must watch a few of the cells that could development tomorrow afternoon. The main threats appear to be larger hail, and damaging winds. There is a tornado threat, but it is very low.
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| Snow could be possible early Monday |
Once all the storms have moved out of the state, and temperatures continue to cool off, some of us could see some light snow flurries Monday morning. This chance should only exist across northern Arkansas with temperatures right at or just above freezing. This is by no means a big event, and should not cause any impacts. Don't get your heart set either, some models agree with the chance for snow while others have disputed it.
Portions of Louisiana and Mississippi have better chances for more structured severe storm development. You can see this in the rainfall amounts for the next 72 hours, notice most of the rain really dodges us to the south and east. This is by no means a wash out, but we will get some rainfall out of it! We look to dry out this week, with more rain possible, and maybe some stronger storms again next weekend.
-AW Team
Models used accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/
