Afternoon Thunderstorms

As we type this blog the state is mostly quiet for now. There are a few isolated areas of thunderstorms currently on-going, these are NOT severe. This afternoon (3-5-18) we could see a few thunderstorms (possibly stronger) form along a weak cold front as it moves from the west. This would mainly be across portions of southern Arkansas. We do not expect a wide outbreak of severe weather, rather just a marginal risk of severe weather with a few stronger cells.

Later this afternoon a weak cold front will progress east. The temperature swing will not be drastic, but the cooler more dry air will help initiate thunderstorms along the warmer humid air in southern Arkansas.

CAPE values (instability - fuel for thunderstorms) are not off the chart by any means, but there is enough to support some thunderstorm development. Notice the higher values across southern Arkansas near the Louisiana border.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed a small sliver of southern Arkansas into a "Marginal Risk" area for this afternoon. We have created a graphic, and posted it above to help better paint the picture. The area highlighted in light green is the focus area for storm development this afternoon, remember this a relatively weak system and we are NOT expecting anything substantial. However, the risk is not zero, so it cannot be ignored.

HRRR model data suggesting thunderstorms storms tracking east along the cold front

High resolution model data is suggesting storms could develop ahead of the front this afternoon and last into the evening hours. Later tonight, after 8 PM or so the front will have made it's way through thus diminishing storm and rain chances.

Hopefully you enjoyed this quick blog, if you have any questions feel free to comment or send us a message!

-AW Team

Models used accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/