Thanksgiving Snow?

As we approach Thanksgiving, travel plans will begin to formulate among families across the country. Snowfall looks very likely across the midwest states on Wednesday of this week. Travel could be hazardous in this region, plan accordingly. As for us across the southern United States, what can we expect?

Temperature probabilities are actually favoring a warming trend over the 6-10 day period. With this being said, a strong shot of cold air looks likely mid-week across the southern plains. This could throw a kink in the above imaged forecast.

By mid-week (Wednesday) a powerful cold front could sweep across the southern plains. This would cool most of us significantly, as temperatures on Tuesday could range in the 60's and 70's across the southern U.S.

On Thanksgiving morning, a winter mix could occur behind the cold front. This is simply one model, but model trends have been consistent as of late. If this model verified, the bulk of the frozen precipitation would fall across regions of Kansas, New Mexico, the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma before moving northeast.

For most of you, Thanksgiving could result in a raw and rainy day, as temperatures could hover in the low 40's. This appears most probable in Oklahoma and Arkansas, where temperatures will be simply too warm for any frozen precipitation.

As we approach closer, we will have any updated information posted on Facebook for our supporters. Please consider becoming a supporter, as it is very easy for us to connect with you during severe or inclement weather.

Remember to follow us on Twitter for more continuous updates: https://twitter.com/vortexchasing?lang=en

-Vortex Crew

Snow in November? Could it be?

You've all heard the chatter about next week, the snow maps are flying here in Arkansas! I'm here to tell you that yes, it is possible. However, we all know VERY well how fast things can change. One thing is for sure, it's going to rain on Monday. The question is how long it will just be rain and not become a frozen form of precipitation.

Let's look over a few points of interest.

• Monday morning could start off relatively mild for this time of year. Monday evening on the other hand, is a different story. Temperatures could fall quickly through the day behind a very powerful cold front.
• Tuesday morning could be VERY cold, with temperatures in the teens across northern Arkansas.
• Depending on how fast the moisture and cold air interaction occurs, some light snow/sleet could fall before the moisture exits our state.
• This isn't a big snow or any sort of blizzard. We've seen this setup hundreds of times, it's just unusual for this time of year.

Here is a few model images from Weatherbell:

On Monday rain will likely be falling across much of the state by lunch time. Notice the widespread snowfall to our north and northwest.

By Monday evening, the cold air begins to seep south and the moisture could change over to light snow or some sort of winter mix. I will add that the EURO solution is fairly aggressive, I posted the GFS' take on this system on Twitter. As we get closer, close range models will likely have a more clear idea.

By Tuesday early morning, some light snow or a winter mix could occur across southeast/eastern Arkansas. Once again this may be a bit aggressive. 

Check out those temperatures on Tuesday morning! Pretty much everyone will be well below freezing, wind chills could be brutal early Tuesday as well. The cold is BY FAR the biggest story for now.

To finish off the blog, I would add that this is not an event to panic over. We all know very well the reality of 34 degrees and a cold rain. Northern Arkansas will certainly be favored for any winter weather chances Monday. Plan on being in school Tuesday, if things become more grim, I'll update all of you on Facebook and Twitter. 

Remember to follow me on Twitter too: https://twitter.com/wxzachary?lang=en

Thanks for reading!

-Zach