Solar Eclipse

Exactly one month from today, (August 21st, 2017) a total solar eclipse will sweep across America, casting millions of people into temporary darkness. The first total solar eclipse to sweep across the United States in almost a century will largely darken all of Arkansas as the moon casts a shadow on the state. This will be the biggest astronomical event America has witnessed in years. But even if you

Path of Total Eclipse and % of Obscuration

are just finding out about the eclipse, it's not too late to plan for the big event. Here is what you need to know:

A total solar eclipse will pass along a thin strip of land that stretches from the northern West Coast to the southern East Coast on Aug. 21, according to current projections. During a total eclipse, the moon directly overlaps the sun and turns the day almost as dark as night. Because the moon, the sun, and the Earth do not align perfectly for most of the country, Arkansans will only experience a partial eclipse. Most, though not all, of the sun will be obscured. From Little Rock's perspective, the moon will start to edge in front of the sun around 11:47 a.m., at 1:18 p.m. most of the sun’s face, (about 90 percent), will be concealed, and by 2:46 p.m., the moon will have moved on. During this time, the outer section of the moon's shadow, the penumbra, will shade the state. These times do not vary much throughout the state with Max arriving at 1:12 in Fort Smith and 1:22 in Memphis, TN.

8/21/17 Solar Eclipse Times for Little Rock

The last total eclipse to cross the country from coast to coast was June 8, 1918, according to NASA. A total eclipse is only possible because of a “cosmic quirk,” according to NASA’s website. The moon’s diameter is 400 times narrower than the sun’s, but it’s also 400 times closer, so the moon and sun falsely appear as the same size. When they align exactly right, the moon can obscure the sun entirely, thus creating a total eclipse. 

Interesting fact: The next total solar eclipse in America will be April 8th, 2024. During this solar eclipse, Arkansas will be in the path of totality (meaning 100% darkness)!! 

Resources: usno.navy.mil, NASA.gov, & arkansasonline.com

Severe Weather Returns

Severe weather in late June is not common, but it's not unheard of; living in Arkansas you know we have to expect anything. It does appear that portions of Arkansas will see some severe weather on Friday, this is not an expected outbreak of tornadoes, or crazy severe weather chaos. However, we always have to be vigilant, you can never let your guard down. Let's dig into the main points..

• FOR NOW, it appears that there will two rounds of thunderstorms due to a weak cold front moving south, both rounds could be severe. One round looks likely early Friday morning, probably after 4-5 AM or so. Another round looks possible as we finish Friday off, with storms entering western Arkansas sometime around 9-10 PM or so.
• It does appear that portions of west central, and northwest Arkansas have the highest chance to see any severe weather. This does NOT mean that other parts of the state can't and will not see any severe weather. 
• Storms will enter from the west, and move east in the both rounds, storms should weaken the farther they move east.
• It is possible that storm development could be stalled tomorrow evening, it really depends on the amount of convection left in the atmosphere. 

We have included the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center as usual, as you can see portions of northwest Arkansas are under an "enhanced" risk area. Other parts of northern and west central Arkansas are in the "slight" risk area. This blog is being posted at 11 PM on 6/29/17, this graphic could change before storms arrive so be aware of that. 

SPC Graphic for 6/30/17 Storms

As we stated earlier in the blog, it looks like there is two rounds possible with these storms. We'll include some model graphics from the NAM 3k model to help explain this. The model posted below shows storms entering northwest Arkansas tomorrow morning. Damaging winds will be the main threats with these storms. 

Morning Round

The next graphic shows storms also moving into western Arkansas tomorrow in the late evening hours. Once again the main threat looks to be heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Remember, there is a chance this round could get stalled out depending on the convection available. We will simply just have to wait and see.. 

Evening Round

Key points of this event:

-Main threats are damaging winds and heavy rainfall (isolated tornado can never be ruled out)

-Storms SHOULD weaken as they move to the east

-Two rounds possible, keep an umbrella handy

-Main threat area is west central, and northwest Arkansas. General area to advise is Fort Smith north to the general NWA area. 

Be safe, and God bless! 

-AW Team 

Memorial Day Weekend Storms

Memorial Day weekend is one of the busiest holiday weekends of the year. According to the AAA, nearly 40 million people are expected to travel across the nation. This poses a great risk for several areas across the southern United States this weekend due to possible severe weather. This does include Arkansas, hence the reason for posting this blog! It wouldn't be normal if Arkansas didn't have a wild weather swing just in time for a big holiday. Remember, we are still at mid-week, so things could change, but we don't expect much to change. Let's dig into a few specifics!

• The day we are really watching is Saturday. It looks as if Saturday has the potential for some very strong storms. There is a marginal threat for severe weather Friday. We will explain the differentials in these two days in this blog. 
• As of right now (5/24/17) there is no Storm Prediction Center outlook issued for this weekend with the traditional risk areas. However, there is a standard 15% outlook area that does include the WHOLE state. This will be posted below.
• With the whole state in a risk area, this does pose the question for timing. As of right now areas in the western portions of the state should see storms in the late afternoon into the evening hours. The farther east you go, the later in the evening for storm chances.  
• It does appear that all modes of severe weather are possible (mainly Saturday). Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes; some possibly strong. 

As we mentioned above, the SPC does not have a traditional outlook posted at this time. However, we do have a 15% risk area highlighted. You can see in the graphic posted below, they do indeed have the entire state highlighted for Saturday's possible severe event. We believe that northern, and western, Arkansas has the highest severe probabilities for Saturday. That being said, we cannot rule out severe storm chances in other portions of the state. In fact, it would not be surprising at all if a few tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings went out in far southern, and eastern, Arkansas Saturday evening. 

Saturday SPC Outlook (15% highlight)

Lets dive into Friday's storm chances, which are lower than Saturday. The SPC has a small portion of Northern, Arkansas included in a "marginal" risk area. There will be plenty of instability for storms to work with on Friday. The only problem is there will be a strong capping inversion that should highly limit storm development. We have spoken of the "CAP" before in recent forecasts. When a layer of warm humid air sets up in the atmosphere, this limits severe storms. This is a good thing, and what we want for Friday evening. Should the CAP break, storms could fire up and turn severe quickly. The likelihood of this is low, which is why we aren't spending too much time on this. We have posted the SPC outlook for Friday below. 

Friday Severe Weather Outlook

Now let's take a look at the instability values, or "CAPE" for Saturdays storms. We have included a look here at the NAM 12-km model. As you can see here, very unstable air will be present for most of the state. You will be able to literally feel the instability in the air Saturday. The warm humid air will be extremely abundant, which is needed for that strong-severe storm development. Values at near 6000 J k/g are not unheard of, but not common either. The NAM does have a knack of "over-doing" things sometimes. However, this model really lines up with the other models we've been looking at as well. Regardless, the fuel needed for severe weather will very much be there for Saturday. We will be watching this, and future model runs very close. 

NAM 12-km CAPE Values 

None of the above material is posted to scare anyone, or make anyone pack up their belongings and leave the state. It's May folks, and we live in Arkansas. Severe weather happens, and it looks likely for Saturday. You know we don't sugarcoat things here at Arkansas Weather, but we also don't "hype" weather events. As of now, it appears that the round of storms for Saturday will be fairly strong. Yes, tornadoes are possible, some possibly stronger than the usual squall line spin ups. Stay tuned to the page and we will have updates and any changes as we move closer. We hope you enjoyed the blog, and thanks for keeping up with us. Remember, stay weather aware, and share! God bless.

-AW Team