impacts. Some of western Arkansas specifically northwest Arkansas also has a chance to see some wintry weather as this system approaches from the west. We'll show you some models, and include some bullet points here to help everyone get a good grip on what is expected.
- Big temperature swing incoming, temperatures today and a portion of tomorrow will be much milder than what we have been experiencing. This will change as we progress into Thursday/Friday.
- All precipitation will start out as rain, with some isolated areas actually seeing almost a inch of rain. This will slowly transition into a wintry mix, and then finally finish as a light snow for some.
- The key to this entire setup is just how much moisture is available with the cold air transition. As the low pressure system spins off to the east it will churn out this precipitation.
- At this time (1-10-18 11:42 AM) we do not expect this to be a winter storm. However, a winter weather advisory is possible and might be needed, specifically for northeast Arkansas.
- We have our eyes on a additional system for early next week, confidence is low however due to the model's performing terribly. We'll have more on that if it continues to show signs of progression.
Posted below is the GFS model, you can see the cold front sweeping the state Thursday. Notice that temperature swing we mentioned, 50's to 60's ahead of the front, with MUCH colder air following.
We've included some model snap shots below giving you an idea of the progression. Everyone starts off with plain rain, then transitioning into a mix, then the system begins to exit to the east with some light snow to finish.
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| (All Rain) |
Thursday evening the rain will be in place, this will cause issues with attempts at treating roads beforehand.
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| (Wintry mix starting NW) |
You can see the wintry mix already beginning in parts of northwest Arkansas and western Arkansas Thursday evening into the early morning hours of Friday. Models have kept parts of west central Arkansas above freezing longer than northwest Arkansas. This will keep precip as MOSTLY rain, but obviously this is subject to change!
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| (Portions of central and north central start to experience the mix) |
The wintry mix will progress across the state to the east. Not much changing here, likely a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and maybe some light snow.
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| (Light snow to finish, system exits to the east) |
Finally the system begins to exit to the east. Northeast Arkansas looks to take the brunt of this system as it begins to ramp up. Portions of the southeastern US and the Ohio Valley will really get the brunt of the moisture.
Road conditions could worsen Thursday night into Friday morning, this could very well cause travel issues and create closings. We'll have all updated information on that on our page. Our last model we would like to show you (posted below) is an output for freezing rain, you can see the total estimates really ramp up in the northeast. Hopefully we will see mostly sleet, remember freezing rain can cause a number of issues on power lines and trees. These amounts appear mostly light for now, so let's hope it remains this way.
Don't let the kiddos get discouraged if it appears you won't be seeing this round of winter weather. It's still really early in the game, and we have some more chances coming up soon! We'll have updates continuously as we progress through today and tomorrow. As always, thanks for reading and stay tuned!
-AW Team
All models are credited to: Weatherbell.com
Don't let the kiddos get discouraged if it appears you won't be seeing this round of winter weather. It's still really early in the game, and we have some more chances coming up soon! We'll have updates continuously as we progress through today and tomorrow. As always, thanks for reading and stay tuned!
-AW Team
All models are credited to: Weatherbell.com
