Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Spring Turns Cold and Maybe a Little Snow?

Rain and thunderstorms are currently on-going (3-27-18 9:39 PM). These showers and storms aren't leaving anytime soon either, as they will stick around for a few more days. The current focal point is the risk of flash flooding and stronger storms. However, as we progress through the week and into early April our focus will certainly change. Colder air looks more and more promising for the early stages of April. Of course, this raises the question of winter precipitation and just how cold it will be.

  • Once the rain and storms finally make their exit, we will have somewhat of a break moving into the late month. There will be more rain chances for early April, but this will not be as prolific. 
  • The biggest story right now is the risks for flash flooding, rainfall has just began and will continue for the next couple of days. We spoke of this in our previous blog, and won't cover it much in this one.
  • The next pattern shift looks to be a cold one, in fact early April looks fairly chilly. Some of our model data has even suggested temperatures dipping into the 20's for low temperatures. Yes, you read that right - 20's.
  • The magic question: "Will there be any snow?" Some model data has actually suggested snowfall for early April. However, this is still something to take very lightly. We'll watch this closely. 
  • As for Easter Sunday, there is a bit of data disagreement on temperatures. The more trustworthy EURO is keeping temperatures in the 30's and 40's during the day. While the GFS is a touch warmer.

It still appears that portions of southern Arkansas will see the worst of the flooding chances for this rainfall event. We have posted the (GFS) total precipitation model above through the end of the month, be aware these totals may be a little far fetched. However, we feel this is fairly accurate on placement. 

Easter Sunday Temperatures (evening)
As far as temperatures go, it appears Easter Sunday could be fairly cold. Especially in northern Arkansas as temperatures could dip into the 30's with ease. There is some model disagreement regarding this, as the GFS keeps us a little warmer. Regardless, it will be cooler than normal for Easter. 

Easter Winter Precipitation - Maybe?

To precursor this graphic, we are NOT stating it will snow, sleet, etc. on Easter Sunday. However, we felt it was worth mentioning the idea of some sort of freezing precipitation on Easter Sunday into the late evening hours. Model data has supported this idea, and has been somewhat consistent regarding it, especially for northern Arkansas. This is a little far fetched obviously, so it is something we will take into consideration and watch closely. Locations, timing, and impacts (if any) is something we can not discuss or answer at this time.

It is not common to see snowfall in April and May in Arkansas. However, it is not impossible and we have seen it occur. Who else remembers the snowfall of May 2013? Five inches of snowfall was recorded in Decatur in northwest Arkansas, while much lighter amounts (trace) were recorded as far south as Montgomery County. Check out the picture posted below, which was taken during the snowfall event of May 2013. Snow lovers, have faith! 

Photograph taken during May 2013 snowfall event
We hope you enjoyed this blog, and learned something new about the weather we experience! We will have updates soon regarding our future weather. Please, remember to like and share as this helps our page grow even more. Thank you for reading and have a fantastic day!

-AW Team 

Model use accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/
  





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