- An area of strong low pressure will begin churning across the central United States throughout the next week. As it moves eastward it will bring a long all sorts of nasty weather. Snow over the Rockies, heavy rainfall, severe weather, and yes this could include some tornadoes.
- The real question is just how significant it will be. We've been watching this for several days now, and the picture is gradually becoming more clear. NOBODY knows what will happen exactly, and if they say they do they are not being honest.
- It looks as if Arkansas could get their first taste of this mess on Wednesday. Beyond that, it is a little muddy for much detail.
- Very unstable energy will be present Wednesday, this has been agreed upon by both of our longer range models. This could lead to some stronger thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon/evening.
- Coverage of the storms, and just how widespread they will be is still up for discussion. This matter will be resolved once we are closer to the weather event itself.
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| Low pressure over the central United States. |
A strong trough will develop over the western sides of the United States early next week. As this strong area of deep low pressure begins to churn and track east, it will be accompanied by all sorts of nasty weather. For those weather nerds out there, it does appear this trough will hold a more "negative tilt". What does this mean you may ask?
Negative tilting of a trough is a sign that areas of low pressure have reached maturity. This also indicates strong differential advection, also substantial increasing of thermodynamic instability. So, we have an area of deep low pressure, negatively tilting of the trough, and a warm/moist sector combination east of the Rockies. This usually leads to widespread severe weather, something we have experienced throughout time.
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| Higher CAPE values across central Oklahoma |
Things will begin to ramp up Monday for portions of far western Oklahoma. However, this should occur well away from Arkansas and will not involve us at all. Then we move on to Tuesday, we have posted a graphic above showing the unstable energy present over central Oklahoma. Notice CAPE values climbing during the afternoon/evening hours. However, the storms that do develop during Tuesday should lose their steam before making it into Arkansas Tuesday night. This is something will we watch closely.
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| GFS CAPE Wednesday |
So when does this batch of storms move into Arkansas, and will they be severe? Looking into Wednesday this is by far our best chances for now. With dew points increasing, temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70's (possibly 80's), and a substantial short wave trough, stronger storm coverage will increase. This could lead to development of strong thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening. Just how far east these storms will track is still a question. We'll know more on the issue of who is involved, and who isn't once we get closer.
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| Storm Prediction Center Outlook |
As this blog is being produced (4-26-18 3:31 PM) the Storm Prediction Center has a 15% outlook posted regarding severe weather in their 7-day outlook. This does include a small portion of western Arkansas. This outlook will likely be expanded to a wider coverage area of the state. Remember, we are still 7-days away, outlooks are hardly ever issued regarding severe weather this far out.
We are still leaning towards the idea that central and western Oklahoma look to hold higher chances for a more potent severe weather event. However, we must be careful as these storms track east into our state. Once we get closer we will have our own outlook graphics, risk areas, and more detailed forecasts. Currently, Oklahoma has not experienced a tornado in 2018, while Arkansas has experienced 22. Stay tuned!
-AW Team
Model use accredited to: http://models.weatherbell.com/
