- It will still be fairly warm and humid on Tuesday ahead of the expected cold front. Some storms could initiate during the afternoon hours, but our main concern is during the overnight (early Wednesday morning).
- If our model data holds true, a large linear (squall line) of thunderstorms should stretch across the state from north to south. This complex will move east, gradually dissipating as it tracks east.
- By Wednesday afternoon, the severe threat is completely gone and the cold front will slowly take over! Temperatures could dip into the low 40's for some of us early Thursday morning.
- The colder air looks to hang around for the next several days, giving us a much needed break from warmer temperatures.
- In regards to our severe weather chances, our main concerns are damaging winds. However, an isolated tornado or two is possible with this system.
Western Arkansas appears to have the greatest chance for any severe weather Tuesday evening. Central Arkansas is NOT included at this time, due to the belief that any storms should lose intensity during their track east. However, this "slight" risk area could certainly be expanded further east.
Here is a look at simulated radar Tuesday evening. Notice there is some isolated thunderstorm activity in this model across central and western Arkansas. While these storms could be stronger, this isn't the main complex to be concerned of. Notice the large and more organized system to the west (in central Oklahoma) - this is the system we've been speaking of.
Fast forward a few hours and the system we're speaking of is making it's entry into the state. While this timing may not be perfect, we believe this system should enter the state sometime after 1-2 AM. This is also when this system could be at it's strongest as far as when it enters Arkansas.
As you head to work Wednesday morning, some could be dealing with thunderstorms, while others are not. Notice the squall line has lost a large amount of intensity and organization as it moves east. While some of these storms could certainly still be on the stronger side, the severe risk should be lower.
By Wednesday afternoon, all thunderstorm activity has dissipated and the severe risk diminished.
Check out those temperatures! Once the thunderstorms are gone, the cold front will slowly make it's entry into the state. Thursday morning look's chilly for some of us, with NWA possibly dipping into the low to mid 40's. For those of you across southeast Arkansas, don't worry, the colder air will eventually reach you.
Lastly, we leave you with the latest 6-10 day outlook from the NOAA. If you'll notice, nearly the entire state of Arkansas is engulfed in a sea of dark blue! This means well below average temperatures are likely. High's in the 60's and lows in the 40's and maybe a few 30's....
We'll see! Thank you so much for reading, feel free to comment or message with any questions.
-AW
