Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today

It's only Wednesday and it's already been a prolific week of weather here in the United States. A historic low pressure system currently tracking across our country has spawned severe weather including tornadoes across southwest, blizzard conditions, and flooding rains. It appears our turn for severe weather will arise later today. While we aren't completely sold on severe parameters here in Arkansas, the eastern sections of our state must be monitored closely.

As usual, first let's go over a few key points.

• As of this morning (4:23 AM), there are currently storms on-going across central Texas and Oklahoma. These storms will eventually wonder into Arkansas later today.
• Everyone has a fair shot at seeing some rainfall and a few storms out of this system, but the severe potential exists mainly across the eastern half of Arkansas.
• While a tornado potential does exist, the main concern is damaging winds. But remember, damaging winds can be just as dangerous!
• Areas east of Little Rock, especially into regions of our eastern borders appear favored for severe thunderstorms.

To enlarge the following graphics, especially if viewing on a mobile device, simply click on them to enlarge.

SPC day-1 outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather  for portions of eastern Arkansas. A slight risk has also been issued, which encompasses the enhanced risk.

30% Wind Probabilities 

We don't normally share graphics such as the one above. However, we felt this added to the point of the damaging wind risk for this afternoon. The SPC has issued a 30% risk probabilities for damaging wind gusts. Remember, severe winds are categorized as winds exceeding 58 mph or greater.

  

Southerly surface flow will aid in advecting warm/unstable air across eastern Arkansas and western Mississippi. As an approaching front tracks east, storms could strengthen. However, the warm sector doesn't appear all that impressive at this time. Nonetheless, thunderstorms could still have plenty of instability to work with and strengthen to severe limits.

By Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms will be on-going across a large region. These storms should remain under severe limits, but a stray strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. Remember, these storms will be moving into a move favorable environment across eastern Arkansas. 

By Wednesday evening, storms are still on-going. We should begin to notice an uptick with the storm activity as it tracks into eastern Arkansas and western Mississippi. 

Continuing into Wednesday evening, storms could still be pestering portions of eastern Arkansas. However, this will be the last of the issues as storms continue to move east out of Arkansas Wednesday night.

Damaging wind gusts could be an issue, especially due to the heavily saturated grounds from our persistent rainfall. A tornado risk is present, but the dynamics simply don't support a widespread threat. Although, embedded tornadoes along the QLCS could occur, these are dangerous and generally occur quick! We'll have any warnings issued posted on Facebook. Follow our Twitter for updates as well.

-AW