First, we'll go over a few bullet points.
- Several regions could see some isolated showers or storms early on Saturday. This is NOT the storms associated with the severe weather risk.
- We could notice an uptick in stronger storm development, possibly severe, around lunch time Saturday.
- As far as regional chances, areas east of Little Rock towards our eastern border appear most favored for any organized severe weather. If our state was split in half, the eastern half is the highlight zone.
- By Saturday evening, generally after 6-7 PM, the severe threat will have left our state.
- Cooler dry air will move in overnight Saturday, leaving us cool once again for Sunday morning.
- All modes of severe weather are possible with this setup. Damaging winds, larger hail and tornadoes. While we aren't declaring an outbreak, a few of these tornadoes could certainly be stronger.
- Soil is highly saturated across eastern Arkansas. This could cause heightened flooding issues, as well as trees being knocked down during high winds.
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| Saturday-Early Afternoon |
As mentioned above, warmer-moist air will push north as a warm front Saturday. This unstable air mass can easily be seen on this model posted above. Instability, measured in J /kg could possibly exceed values of 1800. While this is not unheard of, it is a higher observed value for February. Remember, instability is basically a measurement of the "fuel" for thunderstorms. Higher values can sometimes indicate the likelihood of stronger thunderstorm development.
By lunch time tomorrow, we could begin to see an uptick in stronger thunderstorms. As storms initialize and track into a more unstable air mass.
Fast forward to around 2 PM, thunderstorms are on-going across our eastern border. The HRRR (model above) is suggesting a line, with broken thunderstorms. This is somewhat alarming, if thunderstorms can form into supercells and sustain their isolation, it could increase our tornado threat. Storms with a more linear complex normally inflict more of a damaging wind threat, rather than tornadoes.
By Saturday evening, most thunderstorm activity will have exited Arkansas to the east.
Luckily, storm activity will be confined to the daylight hours. This is great for forecasters and media partners, as nocturnal storms can be even more dangerous. We said that to say this, even though this is a mid-day event do NOT let your guard down. Especially those of you across eastern Arkansas. Have a way to receive warnings and be careful!
-AW
