Yes, you read this blog title correctly, more snow is possibly on the way! A trend over the last few years has kept warmer temperatures persistent through the months of October and November. This trend was ended this year, as we've experienced very cold temperatures thus far. A rather strong area of low pressure aloft will help aid in giving us snowfall chances Wednesday/Thursday. Instances involving a strong upper-level low can become somewhat difficult to forecast, as the track can completely alter a previously published forecast. However, confidence is high that areas across eastern and northeastern Arkansas could see an accumulating snowfall tomorrow evening.
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| Snow covered roads from 2012 in Sherwood (Pulaski County) |
Some areas across central Arkansas and even portions of southern Arkansas may see a few flakes flying. In fact, moisture content could support snowflakes well across our state tomorrow, depending on temperatures. This being said, our focus is certainly across eastern and northeastern Arkansas where snow chances are MOST prevalent as of this time. We have several model images and further information below.
First and foremost, a winter weather advisory has been issued (11-13-18 8:25 PM) for numerous counties along our eastern border into northern and northeast Arkansas.
Due to our highest resolution model (HRRR) not being able to forecast behind tomorrow mid-day, we are using the simulated radar from the NAM (3KM) for this blog. There are several time-posted model images below.
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| Wednesday Morning |
During the morning commute tomorrow, the NAM is suggesting some of us across southeastern Arkansas could see a few snow flakes already flying. Beware, this model could be overestimating this system. A safe bet would suggest this could be a very cold rain, or a winter mix. Nonetheless, don't be surprised if some of you see some snow early tomorrow morning. We believe this would be light and NOT cause any problems. However, we've been wrong before and some models do disagree (NAM) with this thinking.
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| Wednesday Evening |
During the afternoon hours you can really see the low cranking forward in the simulated radar images. Data is suggesting the track will follow along our eastern border during it's track north/northeast.
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| Early Thursday Morning |
Most model data is adamant that snow showers could linger into the early hours of Thursday morning, before finally exiting the state. Just how long the track of this low keeps this system stagnant in Arkansas is hard to forecast. This could also alter snow totals, as a slow moving track would support slightly higher totals!
Now for the favorite part, snow totals! Models are somewhat in agreement of where the most favorable areas for accumulation are. However, there is a few slight differences, see below.
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| EURO Snow Totals |
The ECMWF (Euro model) is one of the more accurate models we use. It handled our recent event quite nicely, and we're confident in the data shown here. It does appear that 2-3 inches of snow could fall across portions of northeast Arkansas. With lower totals across eastern Arkansas (1 inch or less). Yes, it does appear possible that some snow could fall across central and maybe even NWA tomorrow. However, this snow fall
SHOULD be light and not amount to much of anything.
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| GFS Snow Totals |
The GFS model is also pretty similar, with most of the snow accumulation across northeast and eastern Arkansas. Notice this model is not as excited about snow chances over central and even NWA. This doesn't mean these areas cannot or will not see any snow.
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| NAM Snow Totals |
Lastly, we're looking at the NAM model regarding snowfall amounts. Notice this model is not as similar to the other two. While snowfall is still expected across NE Arkansas (as seen in this model), more attention is shown across southeast Arkansas. We don't really agree with this models suggestion, but we still posted it regardless. We do believe portions of southeast Arkansas could see some light snowfall or a winter mix, but not 2-inches worth!
This could certainly cause issues on the roadways Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning. School closings are possible, we'll post those closing here on our blog page in our "school closing" section. Remember, we are dealing with a strong upper-level low. These sort of systems have been notorious for changing quickly and drastically altering the outcome of an event. If this were to occur, we'll have continuous updates on our Facebook/Twitter.
Thank you for reading!
-AW
