Dangerous Thunderstorms on Monday

***This will be a longer blog than usual, we plead with you to take the time to read thoroughly. Dangerous storms are possible Monday***

Arkansas' secondary severe weather season is in full swing, we will get a taste of this on Monday evening. Unlike our last round of severe weather, this could be a little more potent. Luckily, most of the state may be able to avoid the bulk of the nasty stuff. With this being said, our page covers the entire state of Arkansas, we don't want anyone being left out. Regardless of specifics, the threat of severe weather is possible for a large chunk of the state, but as we mentioned earlier, some of the nastiest stuff MIGHT occur just to the east of Arkansas. As all of you are aware, weather can change quickly, so we must remain vigilant over the next 48 hours. Let's look at some bullet points and get into detail.

• Storm chances will begin to increase on Monday afternoon, mostly across central Arkansas. Most of western Arkansas looks to avoid any major storm chances, but we'll watch that closely. 
• As of this morning, we believe the best chances for any organized severe weather will occur after 3-4 PM and last until around 12-1 AM. For those of you wondering about areas involved, we believe areas from central Arkansas and east to the Mississippi border have the greatest chances. We will have graphics below to better explain this.
• All modes of severe weather will be possible with this round of storms. Damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes are possible. There is a threat for stronger, long lived tornadoes with this event as well. Don't panic over this, we will have full a explanation on this below.
• Severe weather looks very likely on Monday, but hopefully thunderstorms will struggle to develop here in Arkansas. This is a possible outcome as storms may not fully strengthen until they move east out of the state. This is our hope, so cross your fingers!
• Our neighbors to the east, especially in the Mississippi River Valley look to take the full brunt of this system. Eastern Arkansas has the highest chances regarding severe weather on Monday, this is fully explained below.

SPC issued risk areas for Monday

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their outlook this afternoon regarding Monday evening. Most of our eastern border has been encompassed in an "enhanced" risk area. A "slight" risk area has also been issued covering areas well into central Arkansas. Some of this area could be upgraded to a moderate risk area before Monday evening, if so we will update this on the Facebook page.

Monday afternoon thunderstorm activity

We've included several model images to help better portray the possible time frame of the thunderstorms. The above posted model is valid for Monday afternoon, notice thunderstorm activity begins to increase in coverage. While not all of these thunderstorms will be severe criteria, some certainly could be. 

Monday evening thunderstorm activity

By Monday evening, there isn't much change. Thunderstorm coverage is still well underway, we fully expect these storms to be rather strong during their track east. Notice the increase of organized thunderstorm structure across eastern Arkansas.

Late Monday thunderstorm activity

By late Monday, we STILL could be dealing with some stronger thunderstorms. However, if you'll notice the storms are well on their way east out of the state. We cannot say for sure, but hopefully the severe weather chances will begin to decrease as thunderstorms continue to train over the same areas. 

Tuesday morning 

By Tuesday morning, the state is cool and quiet. All thunderstorm activity will be well to the east of Arkansas leaving us with cooler weather to start our morning. Temperatures could dip into the high 30's across northwest Arkansas Tuesday morning behind this cold front.

So now we've covered areas involved and a possible time frame for these thunderstorms. Now what about the severity of these storms? We mentioned earlier that there is a slightly heightened chance for tornadoes on Monday. Like our last event, the CAPE (convective available potential energy) is not off the charts, which isn't unusual for November. However, the atmosphere is showing signs of potentially being highly sheared. This simply means that winds will be turning with height, which ultimately leads to conditions conducive for tornado development.

Highest tornado probabilities 

We don't usually do anything like this, but we felt it was needed to help better explain our statements. Above we've included a graphic with an area highlighted in red. This area, in our opinion, has the highest tornado probabilities in regards to Monday evening. This does NOT mean that a tornado will not occur outside of the area we've highlighted. Rather, this area appears to have the needed "ingredients" conducive for tornado development, as we mentioned earlier. 

To conclude this blog we've included a graphic from the National Weather Service explaining the different issued risk ares. As we mentioned earlier portions of Arkansas have been encompassed in an enhanced and slight risk area. Hopefully after reading this blog you have a better understanding of the upcoming weather Monday. If anyone has any questions, feel free to message us or comment on Facebook. 

Stay weather aware!

-AW