The question is, do we have all of these ingredients for Friday? The short answer is sort of. We have wind shear, we have the collision of air masses, but we are lacking the instability. This sort of setup, (low CAPE, high shear) is also not uncommon for this time of year. Let's look at a few bullet points.
- It's going to warm up quite a bit on Friday, we wouldn't be surprised if some of southern Arkansas warms into the low 70's.
- Some scattered rain is possible throughout the day. However, any organized thunderstorms shouldn't occur until after 4-5 PM.
- Several areas of thunderstorms could be on-going by 9-10 PM. The question is how many of these storms will be severe criteria storms.
- By Saturday morning, most thunderstorm activity will be out of the state.
- Our main risks for these storms are hail, damaging winds, and a moderate tornado threat.
- This is a concerning event, as we still have numerous high school football games to be played. Each school should have someone to pay close attention to the weather Friday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk area (orange shading) for a large portion of Arkansas. A lower tier slight risk (yellow shaded) has also been issued, with most of the state with the potential of seeing some stronger storms.
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| Friday Early Afternoon |
By Friday afternoon, some of us will begin to experience some scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. No severe weather is anticipated in the early afternoon.
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| Friday Evening |
By Friday evening, we will begin to see an uptick in thunderstorm activity. There will be a severe risk with these storms, but we feel like the biggest threat is still to the west near Oklahoma. Notice how western Arkansas has been quiet for the most part, this could be a bad thing as instability is able to rise.
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| Late Friday/Early Saturday |
By late Friday night/early Saturday morning, thunderstorms are still on-going. Some of the thunderstorms that do occur during this time frame could be the strongest, especially across western Arkansas.
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| Saturday Morning |
By Saturday morning, most thunderstorm activity is well to the east of Arkansas. Don't let the mild weather fool you, we will be back to freezing cold very soon. Also, some of us may see some more winter weather in the not too distant future! :)
-AW
