Slippery Sunday Morning

Once again, it looks like a slippery morning commute this weekend for some of us due to icy conditions. After a few days of fairly mild and nice weather, things will abruptly change and cold weather will make its return. Saturday will start off warmer than average and gradually get colder with Sunday turning much more chilly with high temperatures struggling to climb out of the 30's. With the cold weather, we'll also have a chance of some light winter weather.

Here's a breakdown on what to expect:

• There is two chances for winter weather--early Saturday morning (confined to mostly NWA) and Saturday night through Sunday morning. Any winter weather should faze out through Sunday, but some very light precipitation is possible throughout the day in areas below freezing.
• Areas with the best chances for any winter weather looks to be northwest and northern Arkansas. West central Arkansas and MAYBE southwest Arkansas could see some brief winter weather Sunday morning. Any amounts should be light, but still could possibly cause some travel issues that morning.
• This looks like a repeat of the last winter weather event, with minimal snow if any, and mostly ice. As of right now, it doesn't appear that it will be enough to cause widespread power outages; however, as stated above travel issues could exist across NWA west central Arkansas.
• Once the winter weather is over, temperatures will not warm much on Sunday, most areas will remain in the 30's with some low 40's across southern Arkansas.

Let's take a look at a few models to help paint the picture for Sunday:

NAM 3km Valid Early Sunday

You can see (model posted above) the ice and sleet mixture begins to move into the state early Sunday morning. Portions of the River Valley may struggle to climb below freezing due to the cold air stalling over the Ozark's. However, we do think it will eventually make it south giving way to freezing temperatures for much of the River Valley.

NAM 3KM Valid Late Sunday Morning

By late Sunday morning most of the moisture has moved east. Areas like central, southern, and eastern Arkansas could see some steady showers, but nothing frozen. We won't rule out some stray flurries or ice pellets for western and northern Arkansas, but nothing drastic for late Sunday morning. Once the moisture exits, western and northern Arkansas will remain very cool, if you will be out Sunday morning make sure and bundle up.

NAM 3KM - Freezing Rain Output

Lastly, we've posted the freezing rain output for this system. Like our last system, it looks like ice will be the most prevalent issue. Areas across northern Arkansas and areas in the higher elevations (Ouachitas) will see higher amounts. This DOES NOT look like ice storm potential, but it certainly could cause travel issues early Sunday morning. A winter weather advisory could be issued for Saturday/Sunday.

If you plan on being out Sunday morning for church, or the Fort Smith Marathon, please have alternate plans and be very mindful of the road conditions. We will have updates throughout Saturday night into Sunday. Thanks for reading!

-AW Team

All models are credited to: Weatherbell.com