We've had numerous people message us asking when the next winter weather event is going to occur, we are here to tell you that it looks like Tuesday is that time! Sadly, this is the type of winter weather that is not so popular. Icy conditions look probable Tuesday evening into the late hours, with someareas seeing some minor accumulation. Let's dive into some bullet points, and go over the specifics with some models.
- This doesn't appear at this time (Tuesday February 6th, 4:12 AM) to be a catastrophic ice storm. However, some minor accumulation does appear possible. Some areas seeing enough to cause isolated power outages and widespread travel issues on Wednesday.
- The areas most favorable to see any icy weather or accumulation is northern Arkansas, specifically northeast Arkansas. Central and southern Arkansas should see mostly a VERY cold rain, but that could obviously change. Models tend to underestimate cold air, especially when it is ushered in from the northeast.
- Areas in high elevations, like the Ouachita's, could see some ice accumulation due to the high elevation difference. However, area's like Fort Smith, which is the north of the Ouachita's should just see a cold rain.
- This is a winter weather advisory situation with a few advisories currently issued for portions of northern Arkansas, more are likely to be added.
- School closings are likely Wednesday morning, especially across north and northeast Arkansas. We will have updates regarding that as needed.
- All the rain, ice, and wintry mix should exit the state to the east by Wednesday morning giving to mostly clear conditions and cool weather.
Let's check out some models, and hopefully paint this picture for everyone.
As you can see in the model posted above, plenty of moisture will be present across the state Tuesday evening into the late hours. Notice the precipitation difference across the north compared to the south. Some models (NAM posted here) bring some of the frozen precip into central Arkansas, which does include areas like Pulaski and Faulkner County. This is subject to change, so just be ready for that, ice is very difficult to forecast.
We've posted a model depicting temperatures for early Wednesday. Notice southern Arkansas appears too warm for any frozen precipitation, while areas across central, eastern, and the River Valley will simply be too close to call. It will be very close, but we are confident in saying areas across northern Arkansas have the highest chances. As we stated above, areas with a higher elevation could see the freezing rain.
Lastly, everyone's favorite model type; the accumulation outlooks. Now, don't take this literally, as always things can and will change. However, this model does line up square with our thinking. You can really see the accumulations pick up across northern and northeast Arkansas. Usually, any ice accumulations over .25 inches is when issues really begin to occur.
We will monitor data throughout the day and update everyone with changes once we are able to fine tune model output. Remember, ice forecasting is one of the toughest things for meteorologist to forecast. So please be patient, it's likely going to be a long day! Also, we will likely have a school closing outlook later today so stay tuned for that.
-AW Team
